Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 5 Review

Explosive renteria 4

Tacoby Bellsbury 7

(L)

I sometimes hate this game. The explosive renterias just suck. Plain and simple, we are a bad fantasy baseball team right now. We are a team full of players who are underperforming their potential and staying on the bench for little piddly ass injuries. We have no heart. We suck. We have potential, though, so we better improve.

Last week was tough. We lost by a single RBI, .02 WHIP and somehow managed to tie in Ws with 2. Jose Bautista was sidelined with a “neck injury” he sustained by “sleeping on it wrong.” He only played in one game (but did manage to hit a bomb to win the category for us). Josh Johnson had his first bad start of the season, but he’ll get no criticism from me. He’s dominant. He’s the anchor of our staff that is performing very well.

Our offense is full of vaginas though, starting with Carlos Gonzalez. I’m still waiting, Carlos. Nice week Prince Fielder, you managed to get two hits over the course of the entire week. Dustin Pedroia also gets a big atta boy for his whopping total of 3 hits last week.

Wuertz Case 6

The Lobster 4

(W)

The Lobster just can’t buy a break. He puts a very solid 2.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and still loses both categories. Wuertz Case is known for its offense, but it was their pitching that carried them to the victory this week. Tulo is in a pretty bad slump, proving that he is human. Though Kemp only hit .174 last week, his three SBs propelled his swuad to the W in that category, proving that speed does not slump. Wuertz Case reclaimed the lead in the league by a game over Gangsta.

Doc Halladay (Formerly Big Time Timmy Jim) 7

Purple Tigers 5

(W)

The Purple Tigers pitchers had a great week, posting a 1.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and only lost two pitching categories (Saves – Charlie’s squad posted 7 of them and K/9). The flip side, though is that they only won a single hitting category (SB – 2. Yep, Charlie’s squad, whatever the team name is, didn’t steal a base last week). But, Doc Halladay continues to roll and has pulled into a 3-way tie for third only 2 games behind Wuertz Case.

Ruppert Mundys 6

Carry on Heyward Son 5

(L)

Congrats to BobbyJ, who picked up his first weekly W of the year. Trambo, buddy, I feel your pain. The week you leave Liriano on the bench, a move I defended, he goes out and tosses a no-hitter. While it sucks that you missed the no-no, I still think you had to sit him last week. He was too dangerous a start. Hindsight being 20/20, though, keeping him in there might very well have changed the outcome of the game. The Mundys lineup is going to explode soon. Pujols can’t stay tepid (he’s not really cold, but he’s not really Albert either) forever and Posey is going to hit again. If they could pick up a pitcher, they could make a move out of the bottom part of this league pretty quickly.

Haveyouseenmywiener 4

Gangsta 7

(W)

As expected, Gangstas has become the biggest shit-talking team in the league. But, I guess when you are just one game out of first place, you get to talk a little shit.

Walter lost steals for the second week in a row, thanks to Hanley Ramirez stealing 4 last week, proving again that speed doesn’t slump. Ramirez is terrible right now. Going into last night’s game, he was hitting under .200 and hit his first HR on Sunday. These are not numbers one wants from a first round pick. Those four bags he got last week, though, were key to a 7-4 victory for the Gangstas.

Walter also got a little frustrated with his squad following the loss. He dumped Vernon Wells, Matsui, Rios, Lyon, McGehee, and Miguel Montero mid week last week.

Honey Badgers 5

Let Timmy Smoke 7

(W)

Mike Aviles didn’t suck for Flynner, but the Honey Badgers still took their first loss of the season, thanks in large part to Derek Jeter hitting his 2 HRs for the season in one week. I’m mostly just kidding about Jeter. He’s getting older and doesn’t have as much power, but he’s much better than he’s been thus far. Getting Grienke back is going to make the Honey Badgers a better team.

Grizzlies Goodness

Last night I was seconds away from flipping off the Grizzlies/Thunder game as Memphis trailed by 10 late in the 4th quarter. Seconds away from a good night's sleep. Seconds away from functioning on more than coffee and adrenaline right now.

3 overtimes later, I'm a little tired this morning and a lot bummed out that Memphis couldn't figure out how to get over the hump last night. The Grizzlies opened up an 18-point lead in the first half, but then it was all OKC as they stormed back and seemed poised to even the series.

Then Memphis just refused to go away. They had blown a huge lead, but then rallied in the final moments to get within 3-points. Mike Conley, who I thought was a liability going into the playoffs, buried a three over Kendrick Perkins to send the game to its first overtime.

Then Greivis Vasquez did it at the end of the first overtime with a miracle shot.

Back-and-forth until 1:30 am when the Thunder finally put the game away.

A couple of weeks back I predicted the Grizzlies would give the Spurs a tough time. I didn't pick them to win the series and certainly wouldn't have thought they could beat the Thunder in a series. Against both teams, however, the Grizzlies look like the better team on the floor. They don't run a million isolations. They run through their bigs and get open looks on the perimeter when teams double-down. They get transition baskets. They get to the foul line.

I was a Grizzlies fan when I lived in Memphis, but didn't keep up with the team much once I left. Well, they are my team now. They are infinitely likeable - they share the ball, they run 10 different guys onto the floor, they have guys with big hearts (Battier, Tony Allen, Conley) and big games (Z-Bo, Mayo, Gasol). And they are playing without their best player, Rudy Gay.

(Side note - which Gasol would you rather have right now, Pau or Marc? It isn't even close.)

The Grizzlies don't know any better right now than to think they can win it all. They blow a big lead - so what? They are down seven with two minutes left in OT - so what? Their coach screws up and send OJ Mayo in to foul when he had five fouls - so what? They compete, play to their strengths and, most dangerous right now, believe.

With the flooding in Memphis right now, there even seems to be some destiny with these guys. They are the right team at the right time playing the right way.

Hixson Tennis

Shout-out to SCSB poster (Maximum Jack) and his Hixson High School tennis team - congrats on the success!

CC

Tobias's One-Night Stand

I mention the same sad fact in about every third post I write about Tennessee basketball: there is only one player in the NBA from the University of Tennessee (C.J. Watson - back-up point guard for the Chicago Bulls). He was recruited by Buzz Peterson, not Bruce Pearl.

One of the reasons I know Bruce Pearl is a great coach is what he has done with good, but not great players. Chris Lofton was a great college player until his senior year. Tyler Smith was a really good college player. Same for Wayne Chism and J.P. Prince. Imagine what Pearl could have done with John Calipari's roster.

Vols fans thought we had an NBA-caliber player with Scotty Hopson three years ago, but quickly realized he is a one-dimensional player who cannot be counted upon.

Then came Tobias Harris.

Harris is big, quick, competitive and has a soft-touch from the perimeter. He has NBA written all over him.

And now he is gone.

One-and-done.

The question is how to feel about it. Over the years, I feel like I have gotten to know guys on Tennessee's roster. I love Chris Lofton, Dane Bradshaw, Wayne Chism, Brian Williams, J.P. Prince, etc. I saw their good and bad over the course of collegiate careers and felt close to them by the end.

I barely got to know Tobias Harris.

He seemed nice. He seemed like a guy worth pulling for. He seemed like the type of guy we could play through or might put the team on its back or emerge as the leader of the squad coming off last year's disastrous season. He seemed like the guy who would get Cuonzo to the Big Dance in his first year in Knoxville.

We'll never know. He was here and gone. He was a one-night stand. Wham, bam, thank you, ma'am.

Do I feel a little dirty? Used? Kind of. I'm used to relationships, not hook-ups. I don't think we should necessarily be ashamed of it. We aren't Kentucky whose revolving door of one-and-dones makes John Calipari The Situation of Lexington.

But we didn't used to do this, mostly because we couldn't. One-and-doners wouldn't give us the time of day a few years ago. It is like we hit puberty all of the sudden.

Or just hired Bruce Pearl. Pearl promised better players and delivered, but there was always a little something dirty about Pearl's vibe. It seemed cool and all, but didn't feel totally right either. And the whole Erin Andrews thing...we should have seen it coming. We worked our way up from Dane Bradshaw and Jordan Howell to Wayne Chism and Tyler Smith to Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris. We won championships, were relevant and exciting, but then ended up in turmoil and disgrace and now we're saying goodbye to guys we just met.

I thought this was what I wanted to UT basketball. Now I'm not totally sure.

R.I.P. Seve Ballesteros

Coming Around

After a mini-boycott of the Braves in the McDowell/Lowe aftermath, I watched most of Tim Hudson's gem on Wednesday night and bits and pieces of yesterday's 2-1 win over the Brewers. And I like what I saw.

The Brewers aren't the '27 Yankees by any means, but they are basically the same team that took 3 of 4 from Atlanta a month ago except now they have Zack Greinke. The Braves dominated the series. They out-pitched, out-hit, out-fielded and out-classed the Brew Crew.

Add that to the St. Louis series which the Braves controlled until the final three outs of the first two games and you've got the Atlanta Braves playing like the team we all thought they would be.

So what is different?

The strategic shift was moving Nate McLouth down from #2 in the order to #8. In retrospect, that was a move that should have happened coming out of spring training. McLouth did have a good spring, but he was coming off a monumentally bad year and didn't need to be in the heart of the order right away. Since his move to the bottom of the order, Nate is looking Great again. He is 11 for his last 25. His average is up over 30 points in the last two weeks. It almost makes me want to see him at the top of the order again...

Dan Uggla is setting in. He looked like a player who was pressing initially which isn't surprising - the big addition to an offense needing a big right-handed bat. That is sizable pressure for a guy who has always played in a small, no pressure market. But since Uggla's homer in San Fran to tie the game, he has looked more relaxed and comfortable at the plate. I think Uggla is due for a monster May.

David Ross and Eric Hinske have finally provided some bench pop. David Ross is the best back-up catcher in baseball which means Atlanta has the best offensive production from behind-the-plate in the MLB. With Freddie Freeman struggling a bit offensively, Hinske has seen more at-bats and come up big in them (see last night's 0-2 home run to give Atlanta an early lead). Even Brooks Conrad, who has looked miserable so far this year, added a game-winning hit against the Cardinals on Sunday. You knew this bench would come around and they finally are.

A healthy Jair Jurrjens makes all the difference in the rotation. He is a legit #2 starter that Atlanta throws out as a #4. Brandon Beachy looks like a legit #2 himself. In terms of pitching depth, the Braves might have more arms than they did in the hey-day of the 1990s. There is no Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine trifecta, but when you look at 1-5 in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen (though I'm afraid Moylan is about to be shelved for the year) you have a staff that is World Series caliber.

Finally, the team is gelling in a number of tangible ways. The Braves are having better at-bats right now. They are moving runners over. They are making productive outs. They are getting on-base and getting timely hits. The line-up is not a power one, but they can work counts and hit line drives and score 4-5 runs per game. With the pitching staff the Braves have right now, that is going to be enough to keep them in the NL hunt.

The Braves are coming around - just in time for a big series this weekend in Philadelphia.

More McDowell Thoughts

ESPN agrees with my take on Roger McDowell here.

Despite the Braves playing better (even in loses to St. Louis), I have found myself subconsciously unattached to team after the McDowell and Lowe incidents. I am not boycotting them, but just don't care to get emotionally attached to them at the moment.

Am I the only one having this reaction?

Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 5 Preview

OK, April is over. The season is about a sixth complete. It is somewhat useful to take a look at the league leaders at this point in the year in order to determine what type of regression/progression you can expect out of your players. As it stands, Matt Holliday is leading the Majors with a .410 average that Tacoby Bellsbury is enjoying. I doubt he’ll hit .400 all year, but he may not regress much. I would not be at all shocked if hit .350+ for the year and did, in deed, lead the Majors in average.

Projected over the course of a whole year, Andre Ethier will hit in 162 games in a row. Eat your heart out DiMaggio. Obviously, he won’t do that, but .330+ with 30/100 will be really good for The Lobster, who needs all the help he can get.

Alfonso Soriano is leading the Majors with 11 Homers. Let that sink in a second and remember that this is 2011, not 2006. I seriously doubt that he’s going to hit 66 HRs this year, so Purple Tigers should enjoy this production while it lasts.

Ryan Howard (and not Ben Zobrist despite 13 last week alone) is leading the world with 28 RBI, which projects to 168 RBI on the year for Howard. Howard averaged 143 RBI per year from 2006-2009 before slumping to a measly 108 last year, so it is not a stretch at all to believe his numbers. The only difference between 2006-2009 is that the offensive lineup around him was much better in those years than it is now with Werth and Utley out. Still, Howard is a run producing machine and he is hitting for a much better average this year. 168? Probably not. 143 again? Looking like it.

Jose Bautista is leading the Majors with 25 Runs thus far. I doubt he’ll score 150 runs, but I’m done doubting this guy. He can rake. He can run. He plays in a good park. He plays with a good lineup. He’s on my team. I believe.

Michael Bourn has 11 SBs. I think he can exceed the 66 SB projection. Attention Walter: Keep him in your lineup on weeks when I predict “Walter will win SBs.” Sheesh.

Jose Bautista leads in OPS at 1.292. He had a .995 mark last year. I doubt he can keep up the 1.292 pace, but I’m through doubting him. See above.

Jered Weaver is leading the Majors in Wins (6) and Ks (55). He will not win 30 games. He may win 25. 25 is really, really good. He may only win 20. 20 is still really good. He won’t strike out 300+ guys. He may get 250 Ks though. He’s good.

Josh Johnson leads MLB with a 0.88 ERA. He doesn’t give up hits and he doesn’t give up runs. When he’s healthy, and he is, he is one of the best in the game. He won’t maintain a 0.88 ERA all year, but he very well may lead the Majors in this category.

Mariano Rivera is leading the world in Saves. Again. He has 11. He won’t get to 66. He’s 41 years old and may beat that number.

WHIP is difficult to talk about because there are a lot of middle reliever types who have great WHIPs. Try to keep it under 1.20 as a team.

Matt Garza is leading the Majors in K/9 at 11.57. Damn. He’s got good stuff and he’s been pretty good for a couple of years now. I don’t believe he’ll stay at 11.57, though. If he finishes the year around 9.00, that would be a great year. That would also be a drop of about 2.5 K/9 from his current production.

Heading into Week 5, we have co-leaders. The Honey Badgers were able to pick up a game and a half on the Wuertz Case to pull into a tie for the league lead. Keep in mind, Honey Badgers, that you don’t get a prize for being in first place in Week 5, but congratulations anyway.

1. Honey Badgers 31-14-3 (.677) --

2. Wuertz Case Scenario 32-15-1 (.677) --

3. Big Dick Gangsta 29-15-4 (.646) 1.5

4. Let Timmy Smoke 28-15-5 (.635) 2

5. big time timmy jim 29-16-3 (.635) 2

6. haveyouseenmywiener 22-23-3 (.490) 9

7. Tacoby Bellsbury 22-24-2 (.479) 9.5

8. explosive renteria 23-25-0 (.479) 9.5

9. Purple Tigers 19-29-0 (.396) 13.5

10. Carry on Heyward Son 15-31-2 (.333) 16.5

11. ruppert mundys 12-33-3 (.281) 19

12. The Lobster 10-32-6 (.271) 19.5

This is a big week for Explosive Renteria. We can make up some ground on the field with a good week. Currently, we’re tied with Tacoby Bellsbury, but a win this week will obviously put us ahead of them. Haveyouseenmywiner is playing Gangsta, so if we can make up a half game on them, we can get ourselves back into the playoff picture.

pos	Explosive Renteria	Tacoby Bellsbury
C	Wieters	Napoli
1b	Fielder	G. Jones
2b	Pedroia	Kinsler
3b	Bautista	Longoria
SS	Drew	Castro
OF	Cargo	Ellsbury
OF	Pence	Vitorino
OF	Damon	Holliday
UTIL	Lind	Ortiz
UTIL	Smoak	Hafner
SP	Johnson	Weaver
SP	Marcum	T. Hudson
SP	Scherzer	Zimmerman
RP	Marmol	Papelbon
RP	Hanrahan	Farnsworth
P	Pineda	Danks
P	Sanchez	Masterson
P	Chacin	Harrison

Jacob get Longo back this week, which will help him out a lot. Ellsbury bruised his knee last night and Ellsbury is a bit of a pussy when it comes to injuries. At the least, maybe he won’t run wild this week. Jacob has Jered Weaver making 2 starts this week, but we managed to make it through the first one without too much damage, so maybe we can weather the Weaver storm this week. I love my pitching. I think we have a good staff. We’re leading the league with 20 Ws; we’re 2^nd in ERA (2.50) and K/9 (8.58) and 4^th in WHIP (1.18). We’ve been getting some saves recently too.

We haven’t hit worth a damn, though. I tried playing the hot hand last week, subbing Lind and Abreu out for Freeman and Lowrie. That backfired. Lind looks like 2009 Lind, so he’s in for good now. Hitting 4^th in the Jays’ lineup and right behind Bautista is where he needs to be. Shame on me for doubting him. But, with Longo back, Tacoby Bellsbury has a much stronger lineup that it has in a while. This will be an interesting matchup.

pos	Big Time Timmy Jim	Purple Tigers
C	Arencibia	Posada
1b	Gonzalez	Butler
2b	Phillips	Cano
3b	Young	Chipper
SS	A. Ramirez	Reyes
OF	Upton	Bruce
OF	Upton	Huff
OF	Zobrist	Bay
UTIL	Polanco	Y. Escobar
UTIL	Vlad	Soriano
SP	Halladay	Kershaw
SP	Billingsley	Jimenez
SP	Garza	Nolasco
RP	Perez	Putz
RP	Cordero	Feliz
P	Shields	Zambrano
P	Morrow	Lowe
P	Storen	Jurrjens

Big Time has made some changes to its lineup, subbing in Morrow for Edwin Jackson and getting Zobrist in there instead of Soto. If someone is looking for some help behind the plate, I’d check with Big Time. Soto is a good Catcher. With Jimenez pitching the way he is right now and Feliz on the shelf until later this week, you gotta like Big Time. But, Posada looks like he may be starting to come around a little bit and Soriano is mashing right now. And Jurrjens and Kershaw both had good starts last night. Ubaldo needs to pick it up.

Big Time’s lineup is just super solid. He has steady players like Polanco and Young mixed with very high upside guys like the Uptons and Arencibia mixed with stars like Gonzalez and Phillips (who is at least playing like a fantasy star at 2b). He has Halladay anchoring a staff and there is not a more dependable pitcher in the game than Halladay. Brandon Morrow will soon lead the world in K/9 and James Shields has turned back the clock and looks like a stud again. Big Time has too much to like to pick against him.

pos	Ruppert Mundys	Carry on Heyward Son
C	Posey	Santana
1b	Pujols	Davis
2b	Kendrick	Johnson
3b	Ramirez	Wright
SS	Rollins	Cabrera
OF	Rasmus	McCutcheon
OF	Hunter	Granderson
OF	Gomes	Crisp
UTIL	Teixeira	Gordon
UTIL	Francoeur	Sizemore
SP	Felix	Lester
SP	Price	De La Rosa
SP	Drabek	Gallardo
RP	Sanches	K Rod
RP	Chen	Broxton
P	Wood	Anderson
P	Ramirez	Myers
P	Axford	Madson

Ruppert Mundys don’t look like a bad club save for the no name pitchers. Yet, Ruppert Mundys aren’t very good. Heyward Son took Liriano out of his rotation this week, which was very necessary, but also kind of sad. Liriano is wreck right now. Trambo could not have left him in. But, Liriano has the kind of arm and the kind of stuff that fantasy championships are built on. He’s kind of a big loss. Grady Sizemore is playing really well right now. I really don’t hate BobbyJ’s squad, but he’s got to get another decent pitcher on that staff before I pick him.

pos	The Lobster	Wuertz Case Scenario
C	McCann	--
1b	Cabrera	Morneau
2b	Uggla	Espinosa
3b	A Rod	Valencia
SS	Andrus	Tulo
OF	Ethier	Kemp
OF	Fuld	Coghlan
OF	Byrd	Beltran
UTIL	Ruiz	Murphy
UTIL	Infante	Smith
SP	Bucholtz	Hamels
SP	Garcia	D. Hudson
SP	Arroyo	CJ Wilson
RP	Fuentes	Bell
RP	Nunez	Stauffer
P	Cain	Burnette
P	Narveson	Santana
P	Franklin	Latos

In a bit of a managing SNAFU, Emerson forgot to put a catcher in his lineup this week. The Lobster’s pitching is just bad. He needs to get himself a good starter. That said, he’s off to a good start this week pitching. Other than Kemp and Tulo, Wuertz Case is doing a lot with smoke and mirrors. Wuertz will probably win this week, but their run in first place won't last much longer.

pos	Haveyouseenmywiener	Gangsta
C	Motero	Avila
1b	LaRoche	Konerko
2b	Weeks	Izturis
3b	Headley	Prado
SS	Desmond	Ramirez
OF	Crawford	Cruz
OF	Quentin	Choo
OF	Bourn	Ichiro
UTIL	Youkilis	Tabata
UTIL	Rios	C. Young
SP	Lee	Verlander
SP	Sabbathia	Hanson
SP	Wolf	Beckett
RP	Venters	Kimbrel
RP	McClellan	Capps
P	Rivera	Walden
P	Oswalt	Boggs
P	Lyon	Harang

Gangsta has Verlander and Hanson making 2 starts this week. Haveyou has Sabbathia and McClellan making two starts. Advantage Gangsta. Walter put Bourn back in his lineup, which will help him out a lot. He should win steals (not the change from “Walter will win steals”). April is over and May looks like it might bring the real Carl Crawford back. If Crawford gets back to being Crawford, Haveyou becomes a much better club.

Konerko is off to a monster start to the week with 2 bombs already and he just missed having a huge night last night as Luke Scott made a diving catch in the left field corner with the bases loaded. All in all, I like Gangsta’s lineup better. Interestingly, though, Dr. Dunk left Mitchell Boggs in his lineup despite the fact that he doesn’t seem to be closing anymore. He left Gio Gonzalez on the bench. Harang had a bad start last night. This one may be interesting.

pos	Honey Badgers	Let Timmy Smoke
C	Martin	Buck
1b	Votto	Howard
2b	Walker	Sanchez
3b	Beltre	Reynolds
SS	Aybar	Jeter
OF	Stubbs	Braun
OF	Heyward	Werth
OF	Stanton	Berkman
UTIL	Roberts	Maybin
UTIL	Aviles	Gardner
SP	Carpenter	Lincecum
SP	Lewis	Haren
SP	Loshe	Lilly
RP	Soria	Street
RP	Valverde	Wilson
P	Kuroda	Cahill
P	Volquez	Romero
P	Floyd	Chapman

I think Let Timmy Smoke will win all 6 pitching categories. The Honey Badgers may dominate the hitting categories, but I think that Thriller’s team manages to squeak at least one category out and win this week’s matchup. Actually, I think it will come down to one player and one player only: Mike Aviles. And he’ll choke. And Flynner will hate him. And I will laugh.