OK, April is over. The season is about a sixth complete. It is somewhat useful to take a look at the league leaders at this point in the year in order to determine what type of regression/progression you can expect out of your players. As it stands, Matt Holliday is leading the Majors with a .410 average that Tacoby Bellsbury is enjoying. I doubt he’ll hit .400 all year, but he may not regress much. I would not be at all shocked if hit .350+ for the year and did, in deed, lead the Majors in average.
Projected over the course of a whole year, Andre Ethier will hit in 162 games in a row. Eat your heart out DiMaggio. Obviously, he won’t do that, but .330+ with 30/100 will be really good for The Lobster, who needs all the help he can get.
Alfonso Soriano is leading the Majors with 11 Homers. Let that sink in a second and remember that this is 2011, not 2006. I seriously doubt that he’s going to hit 66 HRs this year, so Purple Tigers should enjoy this production while it lasts.
Ryan Howard (and not Ben Zobrist despite 13 last week alone) is leading the world with 28 RBI, which projects to 168 RBI on the year for Howard. Howard averaged 143 RBI per year from 2006-2009 before slumping to a measly 108 last year, so it is not a stretch at all to believe his numbers. The only difference between 2006-2009 is that the offensive lineup around him was much better in those years than it is now with Werth and Utley out. Still, Howard is a run producing machine and he is hitting for a much better average this year. 168? Probably not. 143 again? Looking like it.
Jose Bautista is leading the Majors with 25 Runs thus far. I doubt he’ll score 150 runs, but I’m done doubting this guy. He can rake. He can run. He plays in a good park. He plays with a good lineup. He’s on my team. I believe.
Michael Bourn has 11 SBs. I think he can exceed the 66 SB projection. Attention Walter: Keep him in your lineup on weeks when I predict “Walter will win SBs.” Sheesh.
Jose Bautista leads in OPS at 1.292. He had a .995 mark last year. I doubt he can keep up the 1.292 pace, but I’m through doubting him. See above.
Jered Weaver is leading the Majors in Wins (6) and Ks (55). He will not win 30 games. He may win 25. 25 is really, really good. He may only win 20. 20 is still really good. He won’t strike out 300+ guys. He may get 250 Ks though. He’s good.
Josh Johnson leads MLB with a 0.88 ERA. He doesn’t give up hits and he doesn’t give up runs. When he’s healthy, and he is, he is one of the best in the game. He won’t maintain a 0.88 ERA all year, but he very well may lead the Majors in this category.
Mariano Rivera is leading the world in Saves. Again. He has 11. He won’t get to 66. He’s 41 years old and may beat that number.
WHIP is difficult to talk about because there are a lot of middle reliever types who have great WHIPs. Try to keep it under 1.20 as a team.
Matt Garza is leading the Majors in K/9 at 11.57. Damn. He’s got good stuff and he’s been pretty good for a couple of years now. I don’t believe he’ll stay at 11.57, though. If he finishes the year around 9.00, that would be a great year. That would also be a drop of about 2.5 K/9 from his current production.
Heading into Week 5, we have co-leaders. The Honey Badgers were able to pick up a game and a half on the Wuertz Case to pull into a tie for the league lead. Keep in mind, Honey Badgers, that you don’t get a prize for being in first place in Week 5, but congratulations anyway.
1. Honey Badgers 31-14-3 (.677) --
2. Wuertz Case Scenario 32-15-1 (.677) --
3. Big Dick Gangsta 29-15-4 (.646) 1.5
4. Let Timmy Smoke 28-15-5 (.635) 2
5. big time timmy jim 29-16-3 (.635) 2
6. haveyouseenmywiener 22-23-3 (.490) 9
7. Tacoby Bellsbury 22-24-2 (.479) 9.5
8. explosive renteria 23-25-0 (.479) 9.5
9. Purple Tigers 19-29-0 (.396) 13.5
10. Carry on Heyward Son 15-31-2 (.333) 16.5
11. ruppert mundys 12-33-3 (.281) 19
12. The Lobster 10-32-6 (.271) 19.5
This is a big week for Explosive Renteria. We can make up some ground on the field with a good week. Currently, we’re tied with Tacoby Bellsbury, but a win this week will obviously put us ahead of them. Haveyouseenmywiner is playing Gangsta, so if we can make up a half game on them, we can get ourselves back into the playoff picture.
| pos | Explosive Renteria | Tacoby Bellsbury |
| C | Wieters | Napoli |
| 1b | Fielder | G. Jones |
| 2b | Pedroia | Kinsler |
| 3b | Bautista | Longoria |
| SS | Drew | Castro |
| OF | Cargo | Ellsbury |
| OF | Pence | Vitorino |
| OF | Damon | Holliday |
| UTIL | Lind | Ortiz |
| UTIL | Smoak | Hafner |
| SP | Johnson | Weaver |
| SP | Marcum | T. Hudson |
| SP | Scherzer | Zimmerman |
| RP | Marmol | Papelbon |
| RP | Hanrahan | Farnsworth |
| P | Pineda | Danks |
| P | Sanchez | Masterson |
| P | Chacin | Harrison |
Jacob get Longo back this week, which will help him out a lot. Ellsbury bruised his knee last night and Ellsbury is a bit of a pussy when it comes to injuries. At the least, maybe he won’t run wild this week. Jacob has Jered Weaver making 2 starts this week, but we managed to make it through the first one without too much damage, so maybe we can weather the Weaver storm this week. I love my pitching. I think we have a good staff. We’re leading the league with 20 Ws; we’re 2nd in ERA (2.50) and K/9 (8.58) and 4th in WHIP (1.18). We’ve been getting some saves recently too.
We haven’t hit worth a damn, though. I tried playing the hot hand last week, subbing Lind and Abreu out for Freeman and Lowrie. That backfired. Lind looks like 2009 Lind, so he’s in for good now. Hitting 4th in the Jays’ lineup and right behind Bautista is where he needs to be. Shame on me for doubting him. But, with Longo back, Tacoby Bellsbury has a much stronger lineup that it has in a while. This will be an interesting matchup.
| pos | Big Time Timmy Jim | Purple Tigers |
| C | Arencibia | Posada |
| 1b | Gonzalez | Butler |
| 2b | Phillips | Cano |
| 3b | Young | Chipper |
| SS | A. Ramirez | Reyes |
| OF | Upton | Bruce |
| OF | Upton | Huff |
| OF | Zobrist | Bay |
| UTIL | Polanco | Y. Escobar |
| UTIL | Vlad | Soriano |
| SP | Halladay | Kershaw |
| SP | Billingsley | Jimenez |
| SP | Garza | Nolasco |
| RP | Perez | Putz |
| RP | Cordero | Feliz |
| P | Shields | Zambrano |
| P | Morrow | Lowe |
| P | Storen | Jurrjens |
Big Time has made some changes to its lineup, subbing in Morrow for Edwin Jackson and getting Zobrist in there instead of Soto. If someone is looking for some help behind the plate, I’d check with Big Time. Soto is a good Catcher. With Jimenez pitching the way he is right now and Feliz on the shelf until later this week, you gotta like Big Time. But, Posada looks like he may be starting to come around a little bit and Soriano is mashing right now. And Jurrjens and Kershaw both had good starts last night. Ubaldo needs to pick it up.
Big Time’s lineup is just super solid. He has steady players like Polanco and Young mixed with very high upside guys like the Uptons and Arencibia mixed with stars like Gonzalez and Phillips (who is at least playing like a fantasy star at 2b). He has Halladay anchoring a staff and there is not a more dependable pitcher in the game than Halladay. Brandon Morrow will soon lead the world in K/9 and James Shields has turned back the clock and looks like a stud again. Big Time has too much to like to pick against him.
| pos | Ruppert Mundys | Carry on Heyward Son |
| C | Posey | Santana |
| 1b | Pujols | Davis |
| 2b | Kendrick | Johnson |
| 3b | Ramirez | Wright |
| SS | Rollins | Cabrera |
| OF | Rasmus | McCutcheon |
| OF | Hunter | Granderson |
| OF | Gomes | Crisp |
| UTIL | Teixeira | Gordon |
| UTIL | Francoeur | Sizemore |
| SP | Felix | Lester |
| SP | Price | De La Rosa |
| SP | Drabek | Gallardo |
| RP | Sanches | K Rod |
| RP | Chen | Broxton |
| P | Wood | Anderson |
| P | Ramirez | Myers |
| P | Axford | Madson |
Ruppert Mundys don’t look like a bad club save for the no name pitchers. Yet, Ruppert Mundys aren’t very good. Heyward Son took Liriano out of his rotation this week, which was very necessary, but also kind of sad. Liriano is wreck right now. Trambo could not have left him in. But, Liriano has the kind of arm and the kind of stuff that fantasy championships are built on. He’s kind of a big loss. Grady Sizemore is playing really well right now. I really don’t hate BobbyJ’s squad, but he’s got to get another decent pitcher on that staff before I pick him.
| pos | The Lobster | Wuertz Case Scenario |
| C | McCann | -- |
| 1b | Cabrera | Morneau |
| 2b | Uggla | Espinosa |
| 3b | A Rod | Valencia |
| SS | Andrus | Tulo |
| OF | Ethier | Kemp |
| OF | Fuld | Coghlan |
| OF | Byrd | Beltran |
| UTIL | Ruiz | Murphy |
| UTIL | Infante | Smith |
| SP | Bucholtz | Hamels |
| SP | Garcia | D. Hudson |
| SP | Arroyo | CJ Wilson |
| RP | Fuentes | Bell |
| RP | Nunez | Stauffer |
| P | Cain | Burnette |
| P | Narveson | Santana |
| P | Franklin | Latos |
In a bit of a managing SNAFU, Emerson forgot to put a catcher in his lineup this week. The Lobster’s pitching is just bad. He needs to get himself a good starter. That said, he’s off to a good start this week pitching. Other than Kemp and Tulo, Wuertz Case is doing a lot with smoke and mirrors. Wuertz will probably win this week, but their run in first place won't last much longer.
| pos | Haveyouseenmywiener | Gangsta |
| C | Motero | Avila |
| 1b | LaRoche | Konerko |
| 2b | Weeks | Izturis |
| 3b | Headley | Prado |
| SS | Desmond | Ramirez |
| OF | Crawford | Cruz |
| OF | Quentin | Choo |
| OF | Bourn | Ichiro |
| UTIL | Youkilis | Tabata |
| UTIL | Rios | C. Young |
| SP | Lee | Verlander |
| SP | Sabbathia | Hanson |
| SP | Wolf | Beckett |
| RP | Venters | Kimbrel |
| RP | McClellan | Capps |
| P | Rivera | Walden |
| P | Oswalt | Boggs |
| P | Lyon | Harang |
Gangsta has Verlander and Hanson making 2 starts this week. Haveyou has Sabbathia and McClellan making two starts. Advantage Gangsta. Walter put Bourn back in his lineup, which will help him out a lot. He should win steals (not the change from “Walter will win steals”). April is over and May looks like it might bring the real Carl Crawford back. If Crawford gets back to being Crawford, Haveyou becomes a much better club.
Konerko is off to a monster start to the week with 2 bombs already and he just missed having a huge night last night as Luke Scott made a diving catch in the left field corner with the bases loaded. All in all, I like Gangsta’s lineup better. Interestingly, though, Dr. Dunk left Mitchell Boggs in his lineup despite the fact that he doesn’t seem to be closing anymore. He left Gio Gonzalez on the bench. Harang had a bad start last night. This one may be interesting.
| pos | Honey Badgers | Let Timmy Smoke |
| C | Martin | Buck |
| 1b | Votto | Howard |
| 2b | Walker | Sanchez |
| 3b | Beltre | Reynolds |
| SS | Aybar | Jeter |
| OF | Stubbs | Braun |
| OF | Heyward | Werth |
| OF | Stanton | Berkman |
| UTIL | Roberts | Maybin |
| UTIL | Aviles | Gardner |
| SP | Carpenter | Lincecum |
| SP | Lewis | Haren |
| SP | Loshe | Lilly |
| RP | Soria | Street |
| RP | Valverde | Wilson |
| P | Kuroda | Cahill |
| P | Volquez | Romero |
| P | Floyd | Chapman |
I think Let Timmy Smoke will win all 6 pitching categories. The Honey Badgers may dominate the hitting categories, but I think that Thriller’s team manages to squeak at least one category out and win this week’s matchup. Actually, I think it will come down to one player and one player only: Mike Aviles. And he’ll choke. And Flynner will hate him. And I will laugh.
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