Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 3 Review

Explosive Renteria 4

Carry on Heyward Son 8

(L – My Prediction, Explosive Renteria)

This hurts. It sucks to lose. It sucks to eat crow. I am a crow eating loser this week. First off, I would like to extend a very heart felt fuck you to the following people:

Ike Davis (4/3/6/0/.381/1.345). I get it. I drafted you and then went on the interwebs and said I should have taken Jose Tabata over you. Then I dropped you at my first opportunity for a guy named Macier. So, I get it, you hate me. Well, the feeling is mutual, hombre. I hate you right back. Now that you’ve had your week in the sun and you’re through kicking my ass, you can go back to being an average first baseman with marginal power who plays for the Mets in that abyss you call Shea.

Curtis Granderson (7/3/6/0/.421/1.503). Nice week. Now revert back to the mean.

David Wright (7/3/6/3/.286/1.206). Now’s the week you hit 3 bombs? Eff you.

Carlos Gonzalez (1/0/1/0/.050/.217). I have personally mailed you some damn Theraflu and some midol. Please take both and start hitting. You were the single worst first round draft pick in the history of fantasy baseball this week. The. Worst. Ever. Congratulations. Now, please do something to make me stop hating you.

Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. Win some fucking games. Seriously, this is the second week in a row I’ve finished with 2 saves. That ain’t gonna cut it. You are both professional baseball teams, please win a few games. Maybe like 2-3 per week, but only by 3 runs or less, and preferably not on back to back days to give your closers rest. Good Lord, it’s no wonder the Cubs haven’t won a World Series since William McKinley was President.

Tacoby Bellsbury 5

Gangstas 5

(L – My prediction Gangstas)

Remember what I said about Carlos Gonzalez? Dr. Dunk dittos those sentiments exactly with Hanley Ramirez (0/0/3/2/.048/.214). Dunk, at least Han Ram’s 2 SBs helped you win that category 9-6. It’s not often that two catchers put the best weekly lines for their respective team, but that happened in this matchup. Mike Napoli (4/2/4/0/.364/1.624) was en fuego this week, as was Alex Avila (4/0/5/0/.412/1.180).

Dr. Dunk put up good pitching numbers, yet somehow, despite starting 4 closers, he couldn’t manage to win Saves. The main reason is because both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Rays are back and Jonathan Papelbon and Kyle Farnsworth got some saves. Oh, and because Sean Burnett is giving way to Drew Storen.

Big Time Timmy Jim 6

Ruppert Mundys 4

(W – My prediction was Timmy Jim).

The Big Time Timmy Jim’s are just solid. Somehow, they managed to overcome 3 players hitting under .150 to win AVG. I think the big news out of this matchup is that it is still April and Mark Teixeira (4/1/2/0/.438/1.446) is putting up good numbers. This guy usually doesn’t show up until May. Good things may be ahead for BobbyJ.

Still, this is BobbyJ’s third straight loss and I’m sure it’s starting to piss him off. He is just 1.5 games ahead of his brother, Lobster, in a desperate race for dead last.

The Lobster 4

Honey Badgers (formerly Action Jacksons) 6

(L – I took The Lobster)

Well, Flynner changed the name of his team. The details underlying the reasons for choosing the name Action Jacksons are not appropriate for this blog, but it is good to see that the team name, much like it’s name sake, the real Action Jackson, was but a fleeting affair that seemed like a good idea at the time, but ultimately proved to be not all that gratifying. Let me introduce you all to the Honey Badger. He don’t give a shit. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg

Tip of the cap this week goes to Carlos Ruiz (1/0/0/0/.000/.222), who managed to score a run without getting a single fucking hit. Good thing he scored that run, because if he didn’t the Honey Badgers would have won 7-4. Matt Cain let The Lobster down this week by posting an 11.57 ERA, while Lobster lost ERA by 0.03.

Kudos to Flynner for proving me wrong. I eat crow again.

Purple Tigers 4

Wuertz Case Scenario 8

(W – my prediction Wuertz Case)

The Purple Tigers offense is having some trouble in the early part of the season. It’s hard to overcome half of your lineup hitting under .200 and that’s what Brandonwood’s did this week. The Purple Tigers tried to keep it close, posting pretty good pitching number, including an eye-popping 9.95 K/9, but it wasn’t enough. Emerson’s squad swept hitting and won Wins (3) and Ks (68).

Haveyouseenmywiener 5

Let Timmy Smoke 6

(W – my prediction was Let Timmy Smoke)

Death, Taxes and Walter wins SBs. Despite getting off to an early 10-1 lead, Let Timmy Smoke let Haveyouseenmywiener back in the game. Walter posted some impressive numbers this week: 10 HR, 9 SBs. That’s strong. 2.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP. That’s strong too. Now that Carl Crawford is starting to show signs of life, Haveyouseenmywiener could be a formidable opponent and a trendy sleeper pick…

I expected Thriller’s pitching staff to win the counting numbers, but they only managed to win Ks and K/9. Brian Wilson came back to earth this week and posted a pretty horrible 10.13 ERA with but 1 Save.

Braves Sweep Giants

Despite Fredi Gonzalez's inexcusable decision to leave Jairo Asencio on the mound to give away the Braves hard-earned 5-2 lead, the Braves overcame with Dan Uggla's home run (what else does he do besides strikeout and hit home runs?) and Nate McLouth's brilliant at-bat in the 10th to sweep the defending world champs.

All is right in Atlanta.

Jason Heyward's one-game benching has him looking much, much better at the plate. In fact, the Braves looked more relaxed all weekend. Maybe the 162-game season has finally sunk in (like it has in Boston & Tampa, for example) and the realization that every at-bat isn't pressure filled. Dan Uggla still looks like he is pressing, but guys like McLouth, Freeman and Heyward look, to my eyes, to be settling in.

The pitching on this team is going to keep Atlanta in games all year. Brandon Beachy looks good which means the staff right is great (Hudson), really good (Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson) and good (Beachy). That is better than every team in the N.L. outside of Philadelphia. The bullpen, even without Peter Moylan, is really good. Despite Kimbrel's blown save and Asencio's terrible outing yesterday, the pen is an asset. It might be the best bullpen in baseball.

If this line-up hits with any consistency, this early start will be a forgotten thing (much like last year's losing streak). With the weak-hitting Padres up next, the Braves have a chance to salvage this road trip and the month of April.

Don't Look Now, But the Red Sox Might be as Good as Advertised

I realize this is the Scenic City SportsBlog. I grew up here in Chattanooga, but the first Baseball team I ever followed was the Boston Red Sox. Oh, I've always liked the Braves, but didn't love them until a few years after we got Cable in seventh grade. By that time they were second fiddle to my beloved Red Sox. It was rough going early on. My first memory of the World Series was the one the Red Sox lost to the Big Red Machine. For my 18th b-day, I got Game 6 and a ball between Billy Buckner's legs. In the late '90s and early '00s, we were never really in the hunt. Then came 2003 and Aaron "Bleeping" Boone. Since that awful October, life has been pretty good being a member of Red Sox Nation. Although I must admit, I hate that phrase, and it does seem that Boston now has just as many obnoxious fans as the hated Yankees. Still two rings in the last few years feels pretty good.

Even with all this recent success, this offseason seemed pretty bizarre. It was the Red Sox and NOT the Yankees that made the really monumental personnel moves. I was completely taken by surprise when the Red Sox announced the Adrian Gonzalez trade merely a few days after signing mega-Free Agent, Carl Crawford. I mean, I was happy with CC. Going in to the offseason, I figured the Red Sox would make a run at Jason Werth and Crawford, and if they failed to get one or the other, maybe the negotiations for Adrian would start up again. Remember, this was a real possibility last July, but the Padres suddenly found themselves in the midst of a pennant race and talks stalled. So the Red Sox scored two 140+ Million Dollar Men? It's not my money, so I was happy and suddenly anxiously anticipating Spring Training. I think at one point, I might have said, in all seriousness, that the Red Sox would win 105 games this year.

Now fast forward to the middle of April. Just a couple weeks into the season and the BoSox had less wins (2) then A.J. Burnett (3). Yikes! At least I could take solace that those two wins were against the hated Yanks. Our starting pitching was the pits, and only Pedroia and maybe AdGon was carrying his weight at the plate (Jed Lowrie still hadn't had very many at bats).

Today, however, on the same day another Boston team completed a more important sweep, the Red Sox won their fourth in row against Anaheim and fifth in a row overall, and have reeled off eight of their last nine! Sadly, they are still one game under .500, but only 3.5 games out of first place. This has all come about largely due to pitching.

John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matzuzaka (who all woefully underperformed last year and in their first starts this year) have all put together outstanding back-to-back starts. The Red Sox starters ERA over the last nine games is a microscopic 0.88!

And what about the two big offseason acquisitions? As most of you well know, Crawford has not gotten off to a good start. He hit his first home run today and is sitting at an anemic .171/.218/.244 line. Gonzalez is off to a better start with a line of .282/.358/.412, but that was buoyed by a 3 for 5 day today. The rest of the club? Only Jed Lowrie is hitting over .300. This was supposed to be a team that was going to score 900+ runs this year!

My point? Those bats aren't going to stay cold forever. The Red Sox will have to go 96-45 over the rest of the season to prove my 105 prediction correct. If those bats start to heat up, I might be right afterall.

Braves Thoughts

"The Right-handed Billy Wagner" looked like a lost rookie last night blowing his first save of the year. After a clutch hit from David Ross to give Atlanta a 3-2 lead, Kimbrel came in and walked light-hitting Jamey Carroll, then wild-pitched him to second before seemingly settling in with some real gas. Kimbrel was locked in to "Give him the heater" mode as he got ahead of Casey Blake 0-2.

And then he threw him another fastball in the strike zone.  3-3 and the Braves lose in extra innings.

The Real Billy Wagner would have thrown Blake a slider in the dirt that Blake would have had to swing at thinking it could be a fastball. Kimbrel has a cannon, but he over-relied on it yesterday. And he didn't understand that he had two pitches to waste with Blake. There was no reason to throw him anything he could hit.

As Joe Simpson pointed out, Kimbrel then failed to back up the plate on the play at the plate. When the ball got away from McCann, it could have allowed Blake to get into scoring position if not for a lucky bounce off the umpire calling the play.

Walk the lead-off hitter. Wild pitch. 0-2 fastball in the zone. Spectator on the play at the plate.

Rookie.

There are going to be growing pains with Kimbrel and this was one of them. It will be interesting to see how he responds (and, to his credit, he responded well in the 10th inning. Kudos to Gonzalez for putting him back out there).

Other Braves thoughts:

* Jason Heyward got the day off to hopefully get out of his slump. It looks like Fredi's patience for the anemic offense is waning. We'll see what that means going forward. The line-up yesterday was interesting - I like Gonzalez batting second (though his OBP stinks right now) and Freeman is looked comfortable batting higher in the order.

* The ugly offensive stats: the Braves have played as many games (20) as any National League team (three more than some teams), but are 13th in runs scored.

* The Braves are hitting .230 as a team (14th best in N.L.) with a .297 OBP (16th in N.L. - last). The Braves are not getting on base, not getting into other teams' bullpens and don't have runs to drive in when they hit home runs (Atlanta is 4th in the N.L. in homers with 21 - which means it has 48 RBIs not directly associated with a batter going yard).

* The Braves have been caught stealing (6 times) more than they have successfully stolen bases (5 times).

* The Braves' bench is adding nothing to the offense. So far, Atlanta is 3 for 30 in pinch-hitting situations. Yes, they are hitting .100 in that role.

Individiually:

* Martin Prado is not getting on base from the lead-off spot (.278 OBP). The MLB average is .320 which includes everyone, not just lead-off hitters.

* Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla are both hitting under .200. Uggla leads the team in home runs, but also strikeouts (17).

* Chipper Jones is off to an okay start, but not the kind of start his spring hinted at nor the kind of start needed for the #3 hitter in a scoring line-up. If Chipper was batting 6th, his stats would look good. But 3rd? He has 2 home runs in 69 at-bats. McCann has 2 home runs in 65 ABs. That is the power of the line-up?

Add it all up and you get what every Braves fan knows - we can't score. And when you can't score, you don't win.

The New L.A. Dodgers

I'm stealing an idea from the Braves' radio broadcast last night. Don Sutton and Jim Powell were discussing the embarrassing situation in Los Angeles with the MLB taking over the franchise from the dysfunctional McCourt family. Sutton was especially rankled by the situation and how McCourt had almost single-handedly ruined one of sports' greatest franchises. Sutton was talking about how the Dodgers were the model for so many years when Powell chimed in:

"Like the Braves have become."

And he is right. The Braves are the new Dodgers. Look at the similarities:

Managing - Our Bobby Cox was their Tommy Lasorda. A face of the franchise in the dugout. Stability. Professionalism. High standards. Winning baseball.

Pitching - the Dodgers always had a starting staff of 3-4 aces and the Braves' dynasty was built the same way. Both teams were competitive every night because they always have a professional arm to start the game.

Spring training - the Disney set-up isn't Dodgertown, but it is packed, family-friendly and unique. There are not many unique spring training site (Tampa for the Yankees...I can't name another).

Player evaluation - the Dodgers found guys like Fernando Valenzuela, Mike Piazza and Pedro Martinez. The Braves minor league accomplishments are legendary. Good baseball people making good baseball decisions.

Fans - the Dodgers fans got a bad rap for showing up late, but they were good fans when they got there. The Braves fans get a bad rap for not showing up, but they are great when they are there. Both cities are full of transplants, but both have bonded with their franchises.

The old Dodgers were and current Braves are the cream of the crop in terms of baseball operations. Someday the Braves won't be run this well and we will look back at the past 20 years as the glory days not only on the field, but off it as well. Looking at what is happening L.A. makes me appreciate what we've got in Atlanta right now.

Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Overreacting to Underachievement

Let me preface this post by definitively saying that it is way too early to start judging your players. Way too early. Just because a player on whom you thought you’d rely for some big numbers is not producing those numbers right now does not mean that it is time to cut bait. For every cold streak, there is a hot streak.

That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be paying attention, though. That also doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be able cuss your underachieving players unmercifully in the privacy of your own home as you watch them barely hit .200 as a team for the second straight week, or vent about them on the internet. (Carlos Gonzales, I am looking at you. Where’s the power, buddy? Actually, scratch that. We’re not buddies right now. Until you can put up a return for me making you my first pick, I will not call you anything worth putting out over the interwebs for all the world (read 2-3 people) to see. That said, I’m glad I took you and not Carl Crawford, who looks like he’s trying to hit 90mph pebbles with an ink pen right now.)

So, I have put together a list of players who are getting the most cussings from their owners right now. This list does not indicate that these guys are the shittiest players at their respective positions, or that I would not want them on my roster. In fact, if you gave me everyone of these guys on my roster, I’d feel like I had a really good draft. This is just a list of folks who are underachieving their draft position right now, two days into week 3. Some of them even have decent numbers, but not quite the numbers we were expecting when we drafted them. Like I said, it is way too early to try and judge these guys and way too early to judge whether you overdrafted them. For the most part, I think these guys will pick it up and produce the type of numbers we expected when we drafted them.

Catcher (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Joe Mauer (23) (6/2/9/0/.235/.554). He’s hurt or sick, I know. He’s lost a lot of weight and his knees are bothering him. That happens to catchers. But even when he has been in the lineup, Mauer is hitting just .235. That’s not the average Flynner drafted when he (reached and) took Mauer 23^rd overall. Flynner drafted Mauer too soon, I think, but Mauer is still a career .326 hitter with close to a .900 career OPS. When he gets healthy again, I think he’ll produce those numbers. I’m not at all worried about this guy.

Carlos Santana (60) (8/2/9/0/.203/.616). Let’s be clear here, Trambo did not actually draft Santana with the 60^th pick. It was an auto pick made while Trambo was getting dirty lap dances from a prize New Orleans stripper. Still, Carlos Santana at number 60 seemed like a good pick up at the time. Currently, I’d rather have Nick Hundley in my lineup (and I do – Damn you Matt Wieters for hitting HRs on my bench. Save a few of them for next week). Santana is not as established as Mauer, so I can’t necessarily point to the past and say that he’ll pick it up, but his pedigree and his 150 at bats in the show last year suggest that he is much better than a .203 hitter. The 1-23 slump he’s in doesn’t help matters. I think he’ll pick it up and provide a good return on Trambo’s stripper juice induced investment.

First Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Albert Pujols (1) (12/4/10/1/.239/.721). Before I say anything else, I want to say that Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game. He is one of the best hitters ever to wear spikes. He is not putting up bad numbers this year, but he generally does a little better. BobbyJ was expecting something more than a .239 AVG and .721 OPS when he drafted Albert. He’ll get it too. Here’s about what I would think Albert ends up with this year: 119/41/123/8/.330/.1.047. Why do I think those are the numbers he ends up with? Because that is his average year for the past 10 seasons. Yeah, he has put up those numbers for 10 straight seasons. That’s ridiculous. Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

In Babe Ruth’s first ten seasons as a full time hitter, here’s his line: (123/40/129/9/.342*/1.164*). * Lifetime average (because I didn’t want to crunch the numbers). Oh, and how would you like to have a player on your team put up the Babe’s stat line from 1921 (177/59/171/17/.378/1.359)? Wow.

In Joe DiMaggio’s first ten full seasons (note he was at war from 1943-1945), here’s his line: (119/34/140/3/.235*/.977*).

In Ted Williams’ first ten full seasons (note he was at war from 1943-1945), here’s his line: (127/32/126/2/.344/1.116).

Willie Mays’ first ten seasons (note I did not count his 1952 season where he had only 142 at bats and he was in military service in 1953) produced a line of (113/36/105/24/.302*/.941*).

Hank Aaron’s first ten season: (108/34/112/10/.305*/.928*).

So, Albert will be alright.

Adam Dunn (39) (4/2/7/0/.162/.662). He doesn’t even have sole possession of first place in appendectomies this year. Jacob didn’t draft him for his average, but he expected more than .162. Again, the guy is just barely off of surgery, so I’ll cut him some slack. He’ll hit 40 bombs.

Second Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Ian Kinsler (34) (12/4/9/1/.213/.852). In fairness, his numbers are all pretty good except for the batting average and he’s not a high batting average type of guy. He’ll hit 40-50 points higher than he is right now and keep putting up good counting numbers.

Dan Uggla (27) (6/4/7/1/.200/.662). Uggla is getting his HRs, but not much else. 4 HRs and 7 RBIs means that he needs to hit with runners on base. Braves, please get on base. I think Uggla regresses a bit this year. He’ll hit bombs, but he won’t have much of an average and if he doesn’t have anyone to knock in, he won’t have many RBIs either.

Third Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Pedro Alvarez (78) (3/0/4/1/.183/.463). He has more SBs than HRs. That’s not good for someone drafted for his power. In his limited major league experience, he’s shown that he’s a streaky player, so Emerson is smart to sit him until he gets hot. Hopefully, he’ll get hot sooner rather than later. Otherwise, he sucks.

David Wright (12) (11/2/8/2/.239/.700). Again, Wright’s overall numbers are not horrific. He’s just not hitting for much average or power right now. He’ll get his average up, but the power could be a question mark given his 2009 output (88/10/72/27/.307/.837). I think Wright is too good to have another season under 25 bombs, though.

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez (5) (4/0/5/1/.234/.687). He’s better than this. I imagine Dr. Dunk looking at these numbers this morning and pulling his best Jim Mora impersonation. “No HRs yet? Only 1 SB? A .234 AVG? Are you kiddin’ me? Those numbers suck, Hanley. Get your shit together or we’re not going to the playoffs…Playoffs? Playoffs?”

Outfield (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Carl Crawford (8) (3/0/2/2/.143/.357). If he was hitting .357, I would be less shocked than I am that his OPS is .357. He has 2 extra base hits on the year and Travis Snider, who I just dropped, has twice as many SBs as Crawford. Walter probably hates this guy right now just because he spent a first round pick on a guy who’s hitting like an uncoordinated woman without hands. Head up, Walter, it’ll get better. How do I know it’ll get better? Because Crawford is good. And because it cannot get any worse.

Carlos Gonzalez (7) (12/1/12/3/.273/.674). I expect a lot and you’re not giving it to me. I want you to hit at least .300. I want close to 30 bombs and 30 bags. You’re not there yet. I realize that you have only had full season with the Rockies and I realize that you may not be as good as your numbers from last year. I don’t care. I want (111/34/117/26/.336/.974). Hit the damn ball Carlos, you’re friggin killing me!

Shin Soo Choo (29) (9/2/8/4/.215/.607). He’s running which is good, but he’s not hitting much. The Tribe is hitting the ball well as a team this year, but Choo is not taking advantage of the runners on in front of him. I still think he gets to .300 with 20+ HRs and 20+ SBs.

Alex Rios (56) (10/0/4/2/.194/.534). Rios is an enigma. He is awesome sometimes and dogshit other times. He has all the skills anyone could imagine, a 5-tool player. But, he’s not afraid to get hurt and he’s not afraid to underperform. It looks like this may be a year more similar to 2009 (63/17/71/24/.247/.691) rather than 2010 (89/21/88/34/.284/.791), which isn’t all that bad really.

Jayson Werth (45) (9/2/2/2/.200/.684). Look, Werth may not be the .296 hitter he was last year, but he is better than this .684 OPS number he’s sporting right now. The good news is that he’s running right now at the pace he did when he stole 20 bags in 2008 and 2009. 20/20 is a real possibility for him, but I think that AVG may hover around .270 all year.

Honorable Mention

Jason Heyward (47) (7/4/7/1/.203/.787) and Mike Stanton (71) (7/0/3/0/.206/.661). These guys are still very young. Stanton is in his first full year in the bigs. Heyward’s counting numbers are not too bad right now, but he needs to pick up his AVG and I think he will. His plate discipline is too good to hit this low for long. Stanton has 0 HRs and that will change. He may hit a ball 500 ft this year. That said, I don’t know if his average will ever be much higher than .250-.260. But, if he hits .250-.260 with the 40 HRs he’s capable of hitting, you take it. If he doesn’t hit for power, he’s worthless.

Pitching.

I’m not going to get into pitching disappointments yet. One bad outing can skew a pitcher’s stats all to hell this early in the spring. I will say that Ubaldo Jiminez looks bad and his fastball isn’t as fast as it used to be. John Axford is having a lot of trouble throwing strikes (2.21 WHIP), which is a very bad thing for a closer. When a closer puts over 2 runners on per inning (the only inning he has to work), he’s headed for the unemployment line. Jonathan Broxton is not striking people out enough (5Ks, 4.66 K/9). Bucholtz and Bumgardner look much more hittable this year than they did last year and it shows in their numbers. Yovanni Gallardo is not striking people out enough this year either (4.62 K/9; 9.9 K/9 in 2009, 9.7 K/9 in 2010).

State of Tennessee Football

5 for 30.

Those numbers don't describe Nate McLouth's batting average. They are not the baseball Vols record this season. It isn't the original title for ESPN's film series.

No, those are Tyler Bray's spring game numbers.

5 for 30.

In case you aren't aware, the quarterback cannot even be hit in the spring game. He is down by touch. Bray had no fears about being blindsided or blitzed.

And he went 5 for 30.

Coach Dooley said they were opening the offense up for Bray in the spring. Maybe they need to close it back down. Maybe Matt Simms wasn't so bad. Maybe Tyler Bray was a flash-in-the-pan.

But here is the more concerning thing - nobody cares.  I have not sensed any panic from the Vol Nation about Bray's embarrassing performance. Is this what we expect out of Knoxville now? Have Tennessee fans accepted mediocrity?

Can you imagine the outcries from Vols fans in the late 1990s if our starting quarterback had this kind of game in the spring? How will we beat Spurrier? What about recruits? What is Fulmer doing wrong?

I haven't heard ANYTHING about Bray's performance. I shouldn't have to go to GoVolsXtra to find ranting about this - it should be everywhere. It is not. We are not panicking. I don't like it.

Maybe Tennessee fans are still reeling from the Pearl/Martin whirlwind. Maybe they are swept up in the excitement of Todd Raleigh baseball. I don't know. But I'm afraid we are falling in to contentment with 8-4 seasons, with competitive but out-classed teams, with good not great coaches, and with losing to the likes of Alabama, Florida and Georgia without too much hand-wringing.

This is the state of Tennessee football.

Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 3 Preview

Yeah, yeah, I know. It’s Tuesday and I’m posting the preview. I’m late, I get it. I work. Get over it.

pos	Explosive Renteria	Carry On Heyward Son
C	Hundley	Santana
1b	Fielder	Davis
2b	Pedroia	K. Johnson
3b	Bautista	D. Wright
SS	Drew	A. Cabrera
OF	Cargo	McCuthcheon
OF	Pence	Granderson
OF	Abreu	Morrison
UTIL	Lind	Gordon
UTIL	Herrera	Sizemore
SP	Johnson	Liriano
SP	Scherzer	Gallardo
SP	Marcum	Lester
RP	Marmol	K Rod
RP	Hanrahan	Broxton
P	Chacin	Anderson
P	Pineda	Myers
P	Sanchez	Contreras

I like my lineup better than Heyward Son’s. Trambo has picked up Grady Sizemore and he played well on Monday. I still think my lineup will produce more and better numbers. Herrera is a speculative pickup to replace a struggling Travis Snider. He hits in a great hitters park and he’s getting at bats at 2b in front of Cargo and a red hot Tulo. I like the runs he could score. This will be a test run for Herrera.

Trambo’s pitching is still top notch. He’s starting 3 closers again and I haven’t saved many games, so I’d give him the edge there. I have Johnson, Marcum and Scherzer making two starts this week, so I like my chances here. I gave Pineda the nod over Hellickson this week just because of his K/9 rate. Pineda is shaping up to be a very good pick.

My Prediction: Explosive Renteria.

pos	Tacoby Bellsbury	Gangsta
C	Napoli	Avila
1b	Dunn	Konerko
2b	Kinsler	Beckham
3b	Inge	Prado
SS	Castro	Hanley
OF	Ellsbury	Cruz
OF	Holliday	Choo
OF	Victorino	Ichiro
UTIL	Ortiz	Tabata
UTIL	Hafner	C. Young
SP	Weaver	Verlander
SP	Hudson	Hanson
SP	Zimmerman	Gio Gonzales
RP	Papelbon	Kimbrel
RP	Farnsworth	Burnett
P	Danks	Wandy
P	Masterson	Walden
P	Harrison	Capps

Dr. Dunk is going with 4 closers, and Farnsworth is not the most reliable closer for Jacob. I like Dunk in Saves. I like Jacob in the pitching counting numbers. The thing about starting a bunch of closers is that you can put up good ratio numbers (ERA, WHIP, K/9). But if a couple of closers have a bad outing, those counting numbers go straight to shit.

At first glance, I like Gangsta’s lineup more than Bellsbury’s. But Jacob has made some acquisitions that may help him a lot. Hafner is ostensibly healthy and is producing in a red hot Cleveland lineup. Ellsbury is hot and so are the Boston bats. Castro is on fire, but Dunn is ice cold. Jose Tabata is shaping up to be a big time steal late in the draft as he is producing at a great clip right now. If he can keep it up, Gansta is going to be tough to deal with.

I’m going to pick Gangsta, but I think Bellsbury makes it close.

pos	Big Time Timmy Jim	Ruppert Mundys
C	Soto	Posey
1b	Gonzales	Pujols
2b	Phillips	Kendrick
3b	Young	Aramis Ramirez
SS	Alexei Ramirez	Rollins
OF	Upton	Rasmus
OF	Upton	Hunter
OF	Vlad	Gomes
UTIL	Polanco	Teixeira
UTIL	Arencebia	Francouer
SP	Halladay	Felix
SP	Billingsley	Price
SP	Garza	Drabek
RP	Perez	Sanches
RP	Cordero	Chen
P	Shields	Axford
P	E. Jackson	Wood
P	Storen	R. Ramirez

Honestly, I don’t know who Sanches and Ramirez are. And I’m not looking them up either. BobbyJ is digging deep with those two starts. Price had an outstanding start last night, but Axford and Wood sucked. It’s good to see that BobbyJ is paying attention to his team though

Big Time has a very strong team from top to bottom. Arencebia is going to forfeit some at bats when Drabek pitches, but he’s hot, so he can make up for it. BobbyJ is playing the hot hand in Francouer and Gomes. Gomes is making himself ownable in all leagues right now. He’s got a lot of power and could go for 25-30 bombs this year. I Pujols stays hot, Ruppert Mundys has shot.

Still, I like Big Time Timmy Jim.

pos	Lobster	Action Jackson
C	McCann	Martin
1b	Cabrera	Votto
2b	Uggla	Walker
3b	A Rod	Beltre
SS	Andrus	Bloomquist
OF	Ethier	Heyward
OF	Fuld	Stanton
OF	Byrd	Stubbs
UTIL	Ruiz	B. Roberts
UTIL	Pagan	Ibanez
SP	Bucholtz	Carpenter
SP	Garcia	Lewis
SP	Arroyo	Bumgardner
RP	Fuentes	Valverde
RP	Nunez	Soria
P	Cain	Kuroda
P	Narveson	Volquez
P	Franklin	Floyd

I actually like Lobster’s lineup this week. Cabrera is as good as it gets. A Rod is smoking hot. Uggla needs to pick it up, but if Ethier and Fuld can stay hot, Lobster has a shot in hitting categories this week.

This is a matchup of overmatched pitching staffs. There’s not a standout fantasy ace on either team.

I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Loster this week.

pos	Purple Tigers	Wuertz Case Scenario
C	Posada	VMart
1b	Butler	Morneau
2b	Cano	Espinosa
3b	Chipper	Valencia
SS	Reyes	Tulo
OF	Bruce	Kemp
OF	D. Young	Markakis
OF	Huff	Beltran
UTIL	Escobar	Span
UTIL	A. Soriano	Murphy
SP	Kershaw	Hamels
SP	Ubaldo	D. Hudson
SP	Nolasco	Wilson
RP	Feliz	Bell
RP	Putz	Stauffer
P	Zambrano	Burnette
P	Lowe	E. Santana
P	Jurrjens	Latos

Tulo and Kemp. That’s a hell of a start. Emerson is taking the reverse approach to Dr. Dunk and starting a starter in his RP slot. This gives him the edge in counting numbers. Plus, Stauffer and Wilson had good starts last night. Santana didn’t. Zambrano was awesome, vintage Zambrano last night tossing 8 shutout innings and striking out 10. Ubaldo is coming off the DL tonight and if some time off did for his arm what a couple days off did for Aroldis Chapman’s arm, then Brandonwood is going to like the results.

It’s hard not to give the hitting edge to Emerson with Tulo and Kemp in his lineup and both red hot. But, the Purple Tigers’ lineup is pretty solid up and down. If Escobar stays hot, the Purple Tigers have a shot.

Nevertheless, I’m picking Wuertz Case Scenario. I learned my lesson last week.

pos	Haveyouseenmywiener	Let Timmy Smoke
C	Montero	Buck
1b	LaRoche	Howard
2b	Weeks	F. Sanchez
3b	Headley	Sandoval
SS	Desmond	A. Sanchez
OF	Crawford	Braun
OF	Bourn	Werth
OF	Quentin	Berkman
UTIL	Youkilis	Tejada
UTIL	Rios	Reynolds
SP	Lee	Lincecum
SP	Sabathia	Haren
SP	Wolf	Lilly
RP	Venters	Street
RP	McClellen	Wilson
P	Rivera	Cahill
P	Oswalt	Romero
P	Lyon	Chapman

Walter will win steals.

Walter is starting 3 closers, but Thriller has Brian Wilson. Advantage: Push. I like Thriller’s staff better than Walter’s. Lincecum was damn near unhittable last night carrying a no-no into the 7^th and getting the W, but Romero gave away that advantage with shitty outing. Both will get 2 starts this week, so it’s hard not to pick Let Timmy Smoke for the counting stats.

With Crawford still hitting below the Mendoza line, and Berkman on a tear, it’s hard not to like Let Timmy Smoke’s lineup better. But, Berkman will come back to earth and Crawford will start hitting, it’s just a question of when. Youkilis is starting to heat up with a couple HRs in the last couple days. Angel Sanchez will provide Thriller some AVG, but he doesn’t run much, nor does he have any pop.

Let Timmy Smoke is off to a 10-1 lead as of yesterday, but haveyouseenmywiener will close that gap pretty quick. Still, with the counting number advantage from Thriller’s 2 two start pitchers (one of which is arguably the best pitcher in the game), I have to favor Let Timmy Smoke.