Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Overreacting to Underachievement

Let me preface this post by definitively saying that it is way too early to start judging your players. Way too early. Just because a player on whom you thought you’d rely for some big numbers is not producing those numbers right now does not mean that it is time to cut bait. For every cold streak, there is a hot streak.

That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be paying attention, though. That also doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be able cuss your underachieving players unmercifully in the privacy of your own home as you watch them barely hit .200 as a team for the second straight week, or vent about them on the internet. (Carlos Gonzales, I am looking at you. Where’s the power, buddy? Actually, scratch that. We’re not buddies right now. Until you can put up a return for me making you my first pick, I will not call you anything worth putting out over the interwebs for all the world (read 2-3 people) to see. That said, I’m glad I took you and not Carl Crawford, who looks like he’s trying to hit 90mph pebbles with an ink pen right now.)

So, I have put together a list of players who are getting the most cussings from their owners right now. This list does not indicate that these guys are the shittiest players at their respective positions, or that I would not want them on my roster. In fact, if you gave me everyone of these guys on my roster, I’d feel like I had a really good draft. This is just a list of folks who are underachieving their draft position right now, two days into week 3. Some of them even have decent numbers, but not quite the numbers we were expecting when we drafted them. Like I said, it is way too early to try and judge these guys and way too early to judge whether you overdrafted them. For the most part, I think these guys will pick it up and produce the type of numbers we expected when we drafted them.

Catcher (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Joe Mauer (23) (6/2/9/0/.235/.554). He’s hurt or sick, I know. He’s lost a lot of weight and his knees are bothering him. That happens to catchers. But even when he has been in the lineup, Mauer is hitting just .235. That’s not the average Flynner drafted when he (reached and) took Mauer 23^rd overall. Flynner drafted Mauer too soon, I think, but Mauer is still a career .326 hitter with close to a .900 career OPS. When he gets healthy again, I think he’ll produce those numbers. I’m not at all worried about this guy.

Carlos Santana (60) (8/2/9/0/.203/.616). Let’s be clear here, Trambo did not actually draft Santana with the 60^th pick. It was an auto pick made while Trambo was getting dirty lap dances from a prize New Orleans stripper. Still, Carlos Santana at number 60 seemed like a good pick up at the time. Currently, I’d rather have Nick Hundley in my lineup (and I do – Damn you Matt Wieters for hitting HRs on my bench. Save a few of them for next week). Santana is not as established as Mauer, so I can’t necessarily point to the past and say that he’ll pick it up, but his pedigree and his 150 at bats in the show last year suggest that he is much better than a .203 hitter. The 1-23 slump he’s in doesn’t help matters. I think he’ll pick it up and provide a good return on Trambo’s stripper juice induced investment.

First Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Albert Pujols (1) (12/4/10/1/.239/.721). Before I say anything else, I want to say that Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game. He is one of the best hitters ever to wear spikes. He is not putting up bad numbers this year, but he generally does a little better. BobbyJ was expecting something more than a .239 AVG and .721 OPS when he drafted Albert. He’ll get it too. Here’s about what I would think Albert ends up with this year: 119/41/123/8/.330/.1.047. Why do I think those are the numbers he ends up with? Because that is his average year for the past 10 seasons. Yeah, he has put up those numbers for 10 straight seasons. That’s ridiculous. Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

In Babe Ruth’s first ten seasons as a full time hitter, here’s his line: (123/40/129/9/.342*/1.164*). * Lifetime average (because I didn’t want to crunch the numbers). Oh, and how would you like to have a player on your team put up the Babe’s stat line from 1921 (177/59/171/17/.378/1.359)? Wow.

In Joe DiMaggio’s first ten full seasons (note he was at war from 1943-1945), here’s his line: (119/34/140/3/.235*/.977*).

In Ted Williams’ first ten full seasons (note he was at war from 1943-1945), here’s his line: (127/32/126/2/.344/1.116).

Willie Mays’ first ten seasons (note I did not count his 1952 season where he had only 142 at bats and he was in military service in 1953) produced a line of (113/36/105/24/.302*/.941*).

Hank Aaron’s first ten season: (108/34/112/10/.305*/.928*).

So, Albert will be alright.

Adam Dunn (39) (4/2/7/0/.162/.662). He doesn’t even have sole possession of first place in appendectomies this year. Jacob didn’t draft him for his average, but he expected more than .162. Again, the guy is just barely off of surgery, so I’ll cut him some slack. He’ll hit 40 bombs.

Second Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Ian Kinsler (34) (12/4/9/1/.213/.852). In fairness, his numbers are all pretty good except for the batting average and he’s not a high batting average type of guy. He’ll hit 40-50 points higher than he is right now and keep putting up good counting numbers.

Dan Uggla (27) (6/4/7/1/.200/.662). Uggla is getting his HRs, but not much else. 4 HRs and 7 RBIs means that he needs to hit with runners on base. Braves, please get on base. I think Uggla regresses a bit this year. He’ll hit bombs, but he won’t have much of an average and if he doesn’t have anyone to knock in, he won’t have many RBIs either.

Third Base (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Pedro Alvarez (78) (3/0/4/1/.183/.463). He has more SBs than HRs. That’s not good for someone drafted for his power. In his limited major league experience, he’s shown that he’s a streaky player, so Emerson is smart to sit him until he gets hot. Hopefully, he’ll get hot sooner rather than later. Otherwise, he sucks.

David Wright (12) (11/2/8/2/.239/.700). Again, Wright’s overall numbers are not horrific. He’s just not hitting for much average or power right now. He’ll get his average up, but the power could be a question mark given his 2009 output (88/10/72/27/.307/.837). I think Wright is too good to have another season under 25 bombs, though.

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez (5) (4/0/5/1/.234/.687). He’s better than this. I imagine Dr. Dunk looking at these numbers this morning and pulling his best Jim Mora impersonation. “No HRs yet? Only 1 SB? A .234 AVG? Are you kiddin’ me? Those numbers suck, Hanley. Get your shit together or we’re not going to the playoffs…Playoffs? Playoffs?”

Outfield (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS)

Carl Crawford (8) (3/0/2/2/.143/.357). If he was hitting .357, I would be less shocked than I am that his OPS is .357. He has 2 extra base hits on the year and Travis Snider, who I just dropped, has twice as many SBs as Crawford. Walter probably hates this guy right now just because he spent a first round pick on a guy who’s hitting like an uncoordinated woman without hands. Head up, Walter, it’ll get better. How do I know it’ll get better? Because Crawford is good. And because it cannot get any worse.

Carlos Gonzalez (7) (12/1/12/3/.273/.674). I expect a lot and you’re not giving it to me. I want you to hit at least .300. I want close to 30 bombs and 30 bags. You’re not there yet. I realize that you have only had full season with the Rockies and I realize that you may not be as good as your numbers from last year. I don’t care. I want (111/34/117/26/.336/.974). Hit the damn ball Carlos, you’re friggin killing me!

Shin Soo Choo (29) (9/2/8/4/.215/.607). He’s running which is good, but he’s not hitting much. The Tribe is hitting the ball well as a team this year, but Choo is not taking advantage of the runners on in front of him. I still think he gets to .300 with 20+ HRs and 20+ SBs.

Alex Rios (56) (10/0/4/2/.194/.534). Rios is an enigma. He is awesome sometimes and dogshit other times. He has all the skills anyone could imagine, a 5-tool player. But, he’s not afraid to get hurt and he’s not afraid to underperform. It looks like this may be a year more similar to 2009 (63/17/71/24/.247/.691) rather than 2010 (89/21/88/34/.284/.791), which isn’t all that bad really.

Jayson Werth (45) (9/2/2/2/.200/.684). Look, Werth may not be the .296 hitter he was last year, but he is better than this .684 OPS number he’s sporting right now. The good news is that he’s running right now at the pace he did when he stole 20 bags in 2008 and 2009. 20/20 is a real possibility for him, but I think that AVG may hover around .270 all year.

Honorable Mention

Jason Heyward (47) (7/4/7/1/.203/.787) and Mike Stanton (71) (7/0/3/0/.206/.661). These guys are still very young. Stanton is in his first full year in the bigs. Heyward’s counting numbers are not too bad right now, but he needs to pick up his AVG and I think he will. His plate discipline is too good to hit this low for long. Stanton has 0 HRs and that will change. He may hit a ball 500 ft this year. That said, I don’t know if his average will ever be much higher than .250-.260. But, if he hits .250-.260 with the 40 HRs he’s capable of hitting, you take it. If he doesn’t hit for power, he’s worthless.

Pitching.

I’m not going to get into pitching disappointments yet. One bad outing can skew a pitcher’s stats all to hell this early in the spring. I will say that Ubaldo Jiminez looks bad and his fastball isn’t as fast as it used to be. John Axford is having a lot of trouble throwing strikes (2.21 WHIP), which is a very bad thing for a closer. When a closer puts over 2 runners on per inning (the only inning he has to work), he’s headed for the unemployment line. Jonathan Broxton is not striking people out enough (5Ks, 4.66 K/9). Bucholtz and Bumgardner look much more hittable this year than they did last year and it shows in their numbers. Yovanni Gallardo is not striking people out enough this year either (4.62 K/9; 9.9 K/9 in 2009, 9.7 K/9 in 2010).