Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: The Season, Week 1 Preview

Happy Opening Day. Week 1 runs from March 31 through April 10. It will pit my Explosive Renteria’s against Charlie’s Big Time Timmy Jim’s. Brandonwood’s Purple Tigers take on Flynner’s Action Jacksons. BobbyJ’s Rupert Mundy’s will battle Emerson and his Wuertz Case Scenarios. Jacob’s Tacoby Bellsburys will face Walter’s Haveyouseenmywieners. Trambo’s Carry on Heyward Sons are up against Dr. Dunk’s Gangtsas. And Lobster’s Lobsters will contend with Thriller’s Let Timmy Smokes.

Let me preface my preview by saying that it is way too early in the year to get an accurate gauge of things. Mike Stanton might be a bust, or he might be the real deal. It’s too early to tell. And anybody can have a good week. Magglio Ordonez might hit a couple of balls out of the park this week and actually contribute in a category other than average. If I actually knew what was going to happen, I can assure you that I would play the lottery with confidence. I can’t tell what’s going to happen though. I can just guess.

Here is a preview of the matchups:

Pos.	Explosive Renteria	Big Time Timmy Jim
C	Wieters	Soto
1b	Fielder	A. Gonzales
2b	Pedroia	Phillips
3b	Bautista	M. Young
SS	S. Drew/Aviles*	Alexei Ramirez
OF	Cargo	J. Upton
OF	Pence	B.J. Upton
OF	Abreu	A. Torres
UTIL	Lind	Vlad
UTIL	Snider	D. Lee
SP	Johnson	Halladay
SP	Scherzer	Billingsley
SP	Marcum	Garza
RP	Marmol	Perez
RP	Storen	Cordero
P	Hellickson	Shields
P	Sanchez	Kuo
P	Chacin	Edwin Jackson

Let me start off by saying that I was warned about playing the Drew brothers (Stephen and J.D.). They are fragile. It looks like Stephen, my SS, may go on the DL soon, so I picked up Mike Aviles to fill in beginning on April 4. I won’t get anything for the first four days from SS. Grow a pair Stephen. Toughen up.

This makes it even more important that my other position players get off to a good start. By the looks of things, I think Charlie will win steals. Average and OPS will be close I think. I think I’ll take HRs and hopefully RBIs, but who knows. Hitting should be close.

If Scherzer can be the guy he was the second half of last year, I think I can win the pitching battle. I like my bottom 3 better than his.

Pos.	Purple Tigers	Action Jacksons
C	Posada	Mauer
1b	Butler	Votto
2b	Cano	N. Walker
3b	Zimmerman	Beltre
SS	Reyes	Furcal
OF	Bruce	Heyward
OF	D. Young	Stanton
OF	Cuddyer	Stubbs
UTIL	Huff	Roberts
UTIL	Figgins	Ibanez
SP	Kershaw	Carpenter
SP	Ubaldo	Lewis
SP	Nolasco	Bumgardner
RP	N. Feliz	Soria
RP	Putz	Valverde
P	Vazquez	Kuroda
P	Zambrano	Volquez
P	A. Sanchez	Floyd

Both teams have some early question marks with their pitching, but I like Brandonwood’s top 2 much more than Flynner’s. If Volqeuz can return to his pre-Tommy John form, he’ll be money in the back half of Flynner’s rotation, though.

Both teams have speedsters in their UTIL spots, so SBs should be interesting. I think the Action Jacksons have more star power at the plate, but the Tigers are solid everywhere on the field. I give the advantage to Flynner at the dish under the assumption that his young guns (Stanton and Heyward) produce according to their upside.

Pos.	Rupert Mundy	Wuertz Case Scenario
C	Posey	VMart
1b	Pujols	Morneau
2b	A. Hill	Espinosa*
3b	Aramis Ramirez	Alvarez
SS	Rollins	Tulo
OF	Rasmus	Kemp
OF	Hunter	Markakis
OF	Jackson	Beltran
UTIL	Teixeira	Carlos Lee
UTIL	Scott	Span
SP	King Felix	Hamels
SP	Price	Hudson
SP	Dempster	CJ Wilson
RP	Bailey (DL)	Bell
RP	Gregg	Thornton
P	Hughes	AJ Burnette
P	Axford	Tim Stauffer*
P	Aardsma (DL)	E. Santana

Emerson has revamped his staff with additions of Stauffer and Santana and he’s picked up a rookie sleeper to play 2b. Looking at the matchup, I like BobbyJ’s chances. He’ll put up solid numbers despite starting two players on the DL. Emerson should put up some good numbers, but Tulo is a notorious slow starter and may not give him the Tulo edge right off the bat.

Pos.	Tacoby Bellsbury	Haveyouseenmywiener
C	Napoli	Montero
1b	Dunn	LaRoche
2b	Kinsler	Weeks
3b	Longo	Headley
SS	Castro	Desmond
OF	Ellsbury	Crawford
OF	Manny	Bourn
OF	Damon	Pierre
UTIL	Holliday	McGehee
UTIL	Victorino	Matsui
SP	Weaver	Lee
SP	Hudson	CC
SP	Zimmerman	Wolf
RP	Pap	Venters
RP	Bard	Rivera
P		Oswalt
P		Lyon
P		Johan Santana

Like I said, Walter has never played fantasy baseball before. He’s starting Johan, who won’t pitch until July at the earliest, thus letting Jacob off the hook for not putting in 3 Pitchers. Walter should win the counting numbers on the mound.

Walter also left Youkilis on his bench in favor of Matsui. Wow. Nevertheless, he’s going up against the oldest outfield in the league. By far. One thing is certain, Walter will win steals despite playing against Jacoby Ellsbury.

Pos.	Carry On Heyward Son	Gangstas
C	Santana	Suzuki
1b	Pena	Konerko
2b	Nishioka	Beckham
3b	Wright	Prado
SS	A. Cabrera	Hanley
OF	Hamilton	Cruz
OF	McCutcheon	Choo
OF	Granderson	Ichiro
UTIL	Swisher	C. Young
UTIL	Thome	A. Jones
SP	Lester	Verlander
SP	Liriano	Hanson
SP	Gallardo	Gonzales
RP	K Rod	Francisco (DL)
RP	Broxton	Kimbrel
P	Anderson	Wandy
P	Myers	Nathan
P	Rodney	Beckett

Trambo opts for an extra closer to try and sure up his saves. Francisco is on the DL and Jurrjens is on Dr. Dunk’s bench. Trambo’s top 3 pitchers are as good as anyone’s. Advantage on the hill goes to Trambo.

I love Ganstas’ lineup. He is solid 1-10, Kurt Suzuki notwithstanding. But Suzuki is a decent Catcher. I like Dunk at the plate.

This may be the best numbers matchup of the week.

Pos.	The Lobster	Let Timmy Smoke
C	McCann	Buck
1b	M. Cabrera	Howard
2b	Uggla	K. Johnson
3b	A Rod	Sandoval
SS	Andrus	Jeter
OF	Ethier	Braun
OF	Pagan	Werth
OF	Magglio	Gardner
UTIL	C. Ruiz	Reynolds
UTIL	Infante*	Rolen
SP	Cain	Lincecum
SP	Bucholtz	Haren
SP	Beurhle	Lilly
RP	Soriano	Street
RP	Franklin	Chapman
P	Garcia	Cahill
P	Arroyo	Romero
P	Nunez	Kennedy

Rather than dropping Helton, Lobster opted to drop a good young bat in Mitch Moreland for Omar Infante. Picking up Infante was a good call. Dropping Moreland was not his best option on a team full of droppable options. Lobster has a good infield, but I’m not impressed after that. That said, Thriller’s infield has a lot of question marks. His outfield, though is really good. The addition of Rolen to his final UTIL spot is questionable. I think Thriller’s outfield and his pitching (which will be sneaky good) will carry him to the W this week.

2011 Atlanta Braves Re-Preview

I spent a week previewing the 2011 Atlanta Braves last month and got about 24% of it correct. Spring Training in Orlando saw the emergence of an unknown outfielder, the rebirth of Nate McLouth (fingers crossed), and a surprise pick for the 5th starter. So let's re-preview the defending wildcard winners:

1) Roster - Matt Who?

The 25-man roster I expected was turned on its head this spring by a pair of disappointments and a pair of pleasant surprises. Joe Mather was signed from St. Louis to be an Omar Infante-type utility player, but he didn't hit a lick in the spring (.154 average and .192 slugging) and failed to make the roster (he cleared waivers and will start at Gwinnett). The other disappointment was Jordan Schafer who has never rebounded from the suspension a few years back and once again underperformed with the Braves (.167 average, .196 on-base...for a potential lead-off guy). Both guys are coming off injuries, but both were expected to make the squad and didn't.

The two surprises to make the team are Brandon Hicks and Matt Young. Hicks struck out a bunch in the spring, but slugged .450 to justify keeping his good glove around. The surprise of the spring, though, is Young. A minor league journeyman, he figured to lose out to Mather because a) that was the plan and b) Young is another left-handed bat off the bench, but Mather's struggles and .412 on-base got him on the Opening Day roster.

I thought Diory Hernandez would make the roster, but Fredi Gonzalez will keep Hicks and 12 pitchers instead.

2) Nate the Great?


Could Nate McLouth be back to the slugger Atlanta thought it was getting from Pittsburgh two years ago? The spring was certainly promising. McLouth's OBP was .400 and he only struck out 3 times in over 60 plate appearances. These are positive signs for a guy who looked lost at the plate last year. It looks like he will bat behind Prado in the 2-hole instead of Heyward (who was never a #2 hitter, but had to be last year).

If McLouth hits, this is a deep and tough line-up. Fingers crossed.

3) Beachy over Minor

Because why would the Braves need a lefty when competing against the Rollins-Utley-Howard Phillies? Gonzalez chose Brandon Beachy over Mike Minor, meaning the Braves will not have a left-handed starter in the rotation (unless Jurrjens goes on the DL, which looks more and more likely). I thought Minor would get the nod for sure, but Beachy pitched well (including today's exhibition against the Twins) and made the team.

The other minor surprise was Scott Proctor not making the bullpen. The pen looks solid if (and it's a dandy of an if) rookie Craig Kimbrel can replace Billy Wagner as close. Venters, Moylen, Linebrink, O'Flaherty - solid.

4) Larry Wayne Jones

All Chipper did this spring was slug .710 and hit 4 home runs in 62 plate appearances. The guy is ageless when he is healthy, but we all know that the chances of Chipper playing the entire year at full strength are about as good as Brian McCann swiping 20 bases (though McCann starts the year looking slimmer and stronger). If the Braves can get 130 games out of him and go into the post-season with him relatively healthy...

5) Then & Now

Then (2010) - Troy Glaus (needed to go), Derek Lee (eh), Matt Diaz (kind of sad, but okay), Omar Infante (hate losing him), Melky Cabrera (never could get excited about him), Billy Wagner (really hate losing him), Takashi Saito (eh), Kenshin Kawakami (good riddance), Jo-Jo Reyes (whatever).

Now (2011) - Dan Uggla (YES!), Freddie Freeman (high hopes), Brandon Hicks (?), Matt Young (???), Brandon Beachy (can't be worse than Kawakami, right?), Scott Linebrink (veteran relievers are good to have), George Sherill (get lefties out and we're good), Craig Kimbrel (big shoes to fill).

6) Questions

Can Martin Prado play left-field?

I expect an adventure for Prado for a while, but it seems like an easy enough transition from the middle infield to left. Chipper wasn't great out there, but he did alright and I figure Prado will have the same sort of learning curve.

Will the rotation hold up?

I'm not optimistic the Braves can keep Lowe, Hudson, and Jurrjens healthy all year, but Tommy Hanson had a great spring and I like our odds when it comes to so many important young arms. But really, who knows with pitching these days? Kris Medlen was young and is out. It seems impossible to predict.

Will Uggla be the offensive answer?

I'm excited about having a big right-handed bat in the line-up. Relying on Brian McCann to provide the bombs was never a winning formula for the offense. The guy can't play everyday and works harder defensively than anybody on the field. Uggla fixes that (on paper) and seems to be a great fit in the clubhouse. I think he will be the answer offensively.

Can Kimbrel close? 

I don't think this is too big of a problem if it doesn't work. Jonny Venters is a fantastic alternative. And Peter Moylan strikes me as a passable regular season closer as well. Risking a SCSB jinx, I have no fears about the Braves bullpen going into the year. 

Do I feel better about the Braves today than I did at the beginning of the spring?

Absolutely.

Chipper's bat + McLouth's return to form + Beachy's spring + Utley's injury = high hopes.

It starts tomorrow afternoon in D.C...