Who is Michigan?

Since I have not seen a single Michigan basketball game all year, I'm scouring the web for information on the Vols' first-round opponent.

ESPN has a video (here) of Joe Lunardi ripping the Wolverines' #8 seed and predicting a double-digit win for Tennessee. The Vegas line looks to be about a point for the Vols, and I'll trust its judgment more than the Bracketologist (What does he do for the next eleven months now that the tournament is here?)

Michigan finished its regular season 19-13, 9-9 in the Big 10. They beat Michigan State twice and Illinois once in conference, but lost twice to Ohio State and Wisconsin (as well as a pitiful Indiana team). At one point, the Wolverines lost six straight games (including one to Kansas).

The quality wins for Michigan outside the Big 10 aren't overly impressive - Clemson, Harvard, and Utah being notable. They also beat Oakland, a team that somehow won in Knoxville this year. Their three out-of-conference losses were to Kansas, Syracuse, and UTEP - not bad losses.

As for the roster, Darius Morris leads the team with over 15 ppg. The sophomore guard teams up with freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.9 ppg) to form a decent backcourt on paper. It looks like Zack Novak is the long-range threat - a lefty junior who shoots 37% from outside the three-point line. Based on what John Beilein used to do at West Virginia, I expect the Wolverines to shoot a bunch of threes and play junk defenses to compensate for having great shooters/lousy defenders on the floor.

It looks like a major advantage for Tennessee will be inside on the boards. Tennessee pulled down 458 offensive rebounds like season - Michigan snagged a measly 273. The Vols were 34th in the nation averaging 38 rebounds/game while Michigan was 300th (!) at 32/rpg. Zack Novak leads the team in rebounding at 5.7/game...and he is a guard!

Tennessee looks to be a better defensive team as well. The Vols had way more steals (246 to 156) and blocked shots (121 to 67). It isn't easy to get a sense of a team's defensive abilities through statistics, but both of those point to sizable advantages for the Vols.

Finally, Tennessee looks to have superior depth to the Wolverines. Michigan only has seven players averaging double-digit minutes - Tennessee has eleven. Though the post-season timeouts are painfully long, the intensity of the games should help the Vols use their depth to wear down the thin bench of the Wolverines.

There isn't a statistical category where Michigan has anywhere close to the Vols' advantage on the glass or defensively. For a "shooting" team, Michigan barely shoots better than Tennessee from the field (44.4% vs. 43.3%), though they have a wider advantage percentage-wise from behind the arc (35.3% vs. 30.4%).

I hate to get over-confident, but on paper it looks like Joe Lunardi might be right.