Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 6 Preview

I’m late again, I know. We already have a whole day of stats in the book and here I go doing a “preview” of the week’s games. So, to the 1-2 other people who read this gibberish, I apologize for it being tardy.

Anyway, we have a logjam at the top of the standings. Wuertz Case reclaimed sole possession of first place last week, but only leads Gangsta by a game. Doc Halladay, who is now someone’s huckleberry, Honey Badgers, and Let Timmy Smoke are all tied for 3^rd and 2 games behind Wuertz Case.

1. Wuertz Case Scenario 38-19-3 .658 –

2. Big Dick Gangsta 36-19-5 .642 1

3. Let Timmy Smoke 35-20-5 .625 2

4. doc halladay 36-21-3 .625 2

5. Honey Badgers 36-21-3 .625 2

6. Tacoby Bellsbury 29-28-3 .508 9

7. haveyouseenmywiener 26-30-4 .467 11.5

8. explosive renteria 27-32-1 .458 12

9. Purple Tigers 24-36-0 .400 15.5

10. Carry on Heyward Son 20-37-3 .358 18

11. ruppert mundys 18-38-4 .333 19.5

12. The Lobster 14-38-8 .300 21.5

pos	Explosive Renteria	The Lobster
C	Wieters	McCann
1b	Fielder	Cabrera
2b	Pedroia	Uggla
3b	Bautista	A Rod
SS	Drew	Andrus
OF	Cargo	Ethier
OF	Pence	Fuld
OF	Markakis	Byrd
UTIL	Lind	Ruiz*
UTIL	Smoak	Infante
SP	Johnson	Bucholtz
SP	Marcum	Garcia
SP	Scherzer	Arroyo
RP	Marmol	Fuentes
RP	Hanrahan	Nunez
P	Pineda	Cain
P	Sanchez	Narveson
P	Chacin	Franklin

Explosive Renteria is getting back in the W column this week. I hope. This is our best shot. I think we will dominate the pitching categories and at least split the hitting categories this week (assuming Adam Lind’s back starts feeling better and he can produce at or near the level he’s been at lately). The Lobster’s pitching is just not that great and ours is pretty good. The Lobster has a pretty good lineup and I think that Uggla will get back on track this week, but Sam Fuld is playing like a 4^th outfielder right now and has been for the lat couple of weeks. Carlos Ruiz is on the DL, Omar Infante is a great utility man in real life, but he doesn’t put up number in enough categories to be a big fantasy threat and Marlon Byrd is not going to be the savior. If we can avoid a huge week from Cabrera, I think we can win this week easily and make up some ground.

pos	Carry On Heyward Son	Let Timmy Smoke
C	Santana	Buck
1b	Davis	Howard
2b	Johnson	Sanchez
3b	Wright	Reynolds
SS	Cabrera	Jeter
OF	McCutcheon	Braun
OF	Granderson	Werth
OF	Swisher	Berkman
UTIL	Gordon	R. Davis
UTIL	Sizemore	Gardner
SP	Lester	Lincecum
SP	De La Rosa	Haren
SP	Gallardo	Lilly
RP	K Rod	Street
RP	Broxton	Wilson
P	Anderson	Cahill
P	Liriano	Romero
P	Madson	Chapman

Thriller has a lot of speed in his lineup this week. He’s substituted Rajai Davis for Maybin. Add Davis to Gardner and I think Let Timmy Smoke wins steals. I still really like Trambo’s staff, and I still think that his staff will be really good over the long haul. But, Thriller’s staff is just a little better, right now.

Look, I know that Liriano threw a no-no last week. But, he walked 6 only struck out 2. His fantasy line was good, but not great. His K/9 would have been a killer and while his WHIP was good, when a pitcher doesn’t give up a hit, you expect his WHIP to be better than his was. Think about it this way. In Lincecum’s last start, he gave up 5 hits and 3 walks in 7 innings. His WHIP was a little over 1.00. But, he struck out 10 more than Liriano did. He and Liriano would have tied in ERA. Liriano would have won WHIP, but not by too much. Lincecum won convincingly in both K’s and K/9. This is why I think Smoke’s staff is better than Heyward Son’s. Plus, Gallardo is not pitching as well as he can and should right now.

All in all, I’m taking Let Timmy Smoke.

pos	Doc Halladay	Tacoby Bellsbury
C	Arencibia	Napoli
1b	Gonzalez	Helton
2b	Phillips	Kinsler
3b	Young	Longoria
SS	A. Ramirez	Castro
OF	Upton	Ellsbury
OF	Upton	Vitorino
OF	Zobrist	Holliday
UTIL	Polanco	Ortiz
UTIL	Vlad	Hafner
SP	Halladay	Weaver
SP	Billingsley	T. Hudson
SP	Garza	Peavy
RP	Perez	Papelbon
RP	Cordero	Farnsworth
P	Shields	Tomlin
P	Morrow	Masterson
P	Storen	Wakefield

Brandon Morrow had a pretty bad night last night, but he’ll have another chance to make up for it later in the week. Jacob, having picked up Josh Tomlin and Wakefield, is playing the hot hands in his rotation this week. Tomlin is on fire right now, but he’s capable of having a blow up or two at any time. Jacob is also starting Jake Peavy, who is set to make his season debut Wednesday. When Peavy pitches like Peavy, he is dominant. He can carry a whole fantasy pitching staff on his back. But, he’s coming off another injury and it remains to be seen if he can return to the form that has made him great. We shall see. If it was me, I would have watched at least one of his starts before putting him in my lineup, but Jacob kicked my ass last week, so I don’t know why he would listen to me.

All pitching aside, I like Doc Halladay in this matchup. I think they pull out a close one.

pos	Ruppert Mundys	Purple Tigers
C	Posey	Posada
1b	Pujols	Butler
2b	Kendrick	Cano
3b	Ramirez	Chipper
SS	Rollins	Reyes
OF	Rasmus	Bruce
OF	Hunter	Huff
OF	Gomes	Bay
UTIL	Teixeira	Y. Escobar
UTIL	Francoeur	Soriano
SP	Felix	Kershaw
SP	Price	Jimenez
SP	Drabek	Nolasco
RP	Sanches	Putz
RP	Chen	Feliz
P	Wood	Zambrano
P	Ramirez	Lowe
P	Axford	Jurrjens

BobbyJ has got to go out and get some quality pitching. When he does that, his team is going to be formidable. He has a good lineup and two excellent frontline starters in Felix and David Price. Drabek is a good 4^th or 5^th starter, especially in a keeper league, but he has to get somebody to replace Ramirez and Sanches because neither of them is contributing in any counting category. Sure, they may help out in ERA and WHIP, but neither of them has a K/9 over 7.5 and you cannot count on Ws or Ss from either one of them.

Brandonwood’s staff is really pitching well right now. His staff is, like explosive renteria, the strongest part of his team. His hitters are not as good as those on Ruppert Mundys. This one is going to be close, but I’m going to take Ruppert Mundys.

pos	Haveyouseenmywiener	Wuertz Case Scenario
C	Y. Molina	V Mart
1b	Wallace	C. Lee
2b	Weeks	Espinosa
3b	R. Roberts	Valencia
SS	O. Cabrera	Tulo
OF	Crawford	Kemp
OF	Quentin	Coghlan
OF	Bourn	Beltran
UTIL	Youkilis	Murphy
UTIL	Scott	Smith
SP	Lee	Hamels
SP	Sabbathia	D. Hudson
SP	Wolf	CJ Wilson
RP	Venters	Bell
RP	McClellan	Stauffer
P	Rivera	Burnette
P	Oswalt*	Santana
P	Norris	Latos

Walter has completely revamped his lineup in hopes of providing a spark. Emerson had 3 pitchers on the hill last night (CJ Wilson, Latos and Santana) and none of posted an ERA under 6.00, so Haveyouseenmywiener should have some room for winning ERA and WHIP. Haveyouseenmywiener’s counting numbers will suffer with Oswalt on the DL, though and with 3 pitchers making 2 starts this week, I think it is safe to say that Wuertz Case has the inside track on winning Ws and Ks.

I think Haveyouseenmywiener will win steals. They should, but Kemp is running a lot these days, so I’m not counting Wuertz Case out. With Beltran playing well and Coghlan hitting everything he sees, I have to pick Wuertz Case to win.

pos	Honey Badgers	Gangsta
C	Martin	Avila
1b	Votto	Konerko
2b	Walker	Izturis
3b	Beltre	Prado
SS	Aybar	Ramirez
OF	Stubbs	Boesch
OF	Heyward	Choo
OF	Stanton	Ichiro
UTIL	Roberts	Tabata
UTIL	Aviles	C. Young
SP	Carpenter	Verlander
SP	Grienke	Hanson
SP	Loshe	Beckett
RP	Soria	Kimbrel
RP	Valverde	Capps
P	Kuroda	Walden
P	Volquez	Gonzalez
P	Floyd	Farnsworth

If this league were the SEC, this game would be on CBS at 3:30. Despite the adition of Grienke, I still think Gangstas has a better top 3 SPs. Verlander, Hanson and Beckett (who is pitching well this year and pitched well last night) are, I think, better than Carpenter, Grienke, and Loshe. I like Gonzalez’s ability to strike people out and I think that starting 4 closers solidifies his Gangstas in saves, but gives Honey Badgers an edge in the counting numbers, especially with their two best pitchers going twice this week. I think that Honey Badgers will win the counting stats (other than Ss) and K/9.

Cruz going on the DL is a big blow for Gangstas. Cruz is better than Boesch by a facto of 10. Look, I hate Mike Aviles for costing me in Week 1, and he may be splitting time and giving up some at bats in that lineup, but he’s not a bad player to have in your lineup if your Flynner. Hanley Ramirez is better than he has played all year. He will have a huge week soon. If that is this week, Ganstas will win. If it’s not this week, Honey Badgers will win. I don’t think Hanley will play badly this week, but I don’t think he’s going to have the type of week like Tulo did in Week 2 either. So, I’m going with Honey Badgers this week.