Monday, April 11, 2011

Chronicling a Fantasy Baseball Season, Part III: Week 2 Preview

Heading into Week 2, you are about to see some very reactionary moves and some pretty weak team monitoring. In fairness, we were supposed to be able to set our lineups on Monday, but Yahoo! would not allow us to do that today. So, some of the negligent omissions may be due to the system rather than from laziness.

Pos.

Explosive Renteria

Ruppert Mundys

C

Hundley

Posey

1b

Fielder

Pujols

2b

Pedroia

Hill

3b

Bautista

Aramis Ramirez

SS

Drew

Rollins

OF

Cargo

Rasmus

OF

Pence

Hunter

OF

Abreu

A. Jackson

UTIL

Lind

Teixeira

UTIL

Snider

Scott

SP

Johnson

Felix

SP

Scherzer

Price

SP

Marcum

Dempster

RP

Marmol

Bailey (DL)

RP

Hanrahan

Gregg

P

Hellickson

Hughes

P

Sanchez

Axford

P

Chacin

Aardsma (DL)

I would feel a lot less confident about this matchup if BobbyJ would have put Howie Kendrick (9/4/4/0/.389/1.294 in for Aaron Hill (1/0/6/2/.184/.406). (Remember when I said: “The benefit of BobbyJ’s experience playing fantasy baseball is generally trumped by his attention span. It’s low.” Well, this week, I’m glad.) In fact, BobbyJ’s infield would be quite daunting with Kendrick in there. Alas, Kendrick is wasting away on BobbyJ’s bench.

Kevin Gregg is not that good. John Axford is not pitching very well. Phillip Hughes has lost a lot of velocity and is throwing batting practice fastballs at major league hitters. His top 2 starters are as good as any, but it falls off dramatically after that. I like my chances in the pitching categories this week. Hellickson is facing the Red Sox, who are poised to break out of a slump, but he has two starts this week, so he’s in the lineup. He may have to pitch a shutout to get a W with the anemic Rays offense behind him, so the decision between him and Pineda was fairly difficult. Otherwise, I like my pitching.

I like my outfield pretty well. Other than Cargo, there is not really star power in my OF, but they are all solid. Pence is a 6 category contributor. Abreu, despite his age, still runs well. Cargo is just awesome. I replaced Wieters with Hundley to try and take advantage of this hot streak. The problem with playing unproven guys on a streak is that streaks end. But, it’s not like Wieters has ever lived up to his billing, so I’ll take a chance with Hundley and see if he can stay hot.

Speaking of streaks, Pujols is on a cold one. That won’t last long. He’ll break out and he’ll do it soon. I just hope he is average Albert this week, not the Albert who can carry a fantasy team on his shoulders. With Holliday back in the lineup protecting him, though, I fear that Albert will rebound in a big way this week. Fielder will need to continue to hit to minimize the damage that Albert will do in order for me to win.

I like Pedroia over Hill by a lot. Bautista has better power than Ramirez, but that position will be close to a push. It may be that I give Drew too much credit for his tools, but I think he puts up better numbers than Rollins this week.

My prediction: Explosive Renteria.

Pos.

Big Time Timmy Jim

Let Timmy Smoke

C

Soto

Buck

1b

Gonzales

Howard

2b

Phillips

Sanchez

3b

Young

Sandoval

SS

Alexei Ramirez

Tejada

OF

J. Upton

Braun

OF

BJ Upton

Maybin

OF

Torres

Werth

UTIL

Vlad

Rolen

UTIL

Polanco

Reynolds

SP

Halladay

Lincecum

SP

Billingsley

Haren

SP

Garza

Lilly

RP

Perez

Street

RP

Cordero

Wilson

P

Shields

Cahill

P

Kuo

Romero

P

Jackson

Kennedy

The battle of the Timmy’s. I like Big Time’s infield better than Smoke’s. I like Smoke’s outfield better than Big Time’s collection of Uptons. I think Cameron Maybin can be a very good pick up for Smoke and I think Braun may be the best OF in the game (at least top 2). I think Vlad and Polanco will push the hitting to Big Time, but only slightly – and I’m not all that confident in that prediction.

Top to bottom, I like Smoke’s pitching better than Big Time’s. If Edwin Jackson got to face the Rays again this week, I might be singing a different tune. I think Cahill is going to have a bigger year this year with Ks than he did last year, but I just can’t see him maintaining the 10.66 K/9 pace he’s on right now. This one should be close.

My Prediction: Big Time.

Pos.

Carry On Heyward Son

Wuertz Case Scenario

C

Santana

Martinez

1b

Davis

Morneau

2b

Callaspo

Espinosa

3b

Wright

Alvarez

SS

A. Cabrera

Tulo

OF

Hamilton

Kemp

OF

McCutchoen

Markakis

OF

Granderson

Beltran

UTIL

Gordon

Lee

UTIL

Crisp

Span

SP

Lester

Hamels

SP

Liriano

D. Hudson

SP

Gallardo

CJ Wilson

RP

K Rod

Bell

RP

Broxton

Thornton

P

B. Anderson

Burnette

P

B. Myers

Stauffer

P

Contreras

E. Santana

Again, Trambo goes with an extra closer, opting for Contreras over De La Rosa. With Thornton struggling in Chicago, I’d bet good money that Carry On Heyward Son wins the SVs category. Considering Carry On Heyward Son’s top 3 SP’s and adding Brett Anderson and a solid Brett Myers to that core, I really like Carry On Heyward Son’s pitching in this matchup. Wuertz Case opted to leave Mat Lotos and his two starts this week on the bench, so his counting numbers will not be as high as they could have been.

Carry On Heyward Son has made some quality pickups. Ike Davis is hitting the ball well at 1b. Callaspo is a streaky player who is on a good streak right now. Alex Gordon may finally be ready to live up to his potential as he is following up a torrid spring with a very good opening 10 day output. Coco Crisp will add steals and maybe even a little power.

Meanwhile, Matt Kemp is coming off the type of week that has had fantasy owners drooling over his upside for the last couple of years. If he and Tulo can continue to live up to their upside potential and Pedro Alvarez can display that 30+ HR power, Wuertz Case has a lot to work with.

The battle between V Mart and his protégé will be interesting, but I still like the proven V Mart.

My Prediction: Carry On Heyward Son by a nose.

Pos.

Purple Tigers

Gangsta

C

Posada

Avila

1b

Butler

Konerko

2b

Cano

Beckham

3b

Zimmerman

Prado

SS

Reyes

Hanley

OF

Bruce

Cruz

OF

D. Young

Choo

OF

Cuddyer

Ichiro

UTIL

Huff

C. Young

UTIL

Figgins

Raburn

SP

Kershaw

Verlander

SP

Ubaldo

Hanson

SP

Nolasco

Gonzales

RP

Feliz

Kimbrel

RP

Putz

Burnette

P

Vazquez

Wandy

P

Zambrano

Nathan

P

A. Sanchez

Walden

Fact: Gansta will win saves. He is starting 4 closers this week. This gives Purple Tigers the advantage in Ws and Ks. They will battle over the other 3 pitching categories. If Ubaldo can bounce back, I’d give the Purple Tigers the advantage. That is a very big “if,” however. Ubaldo’s fastball, which once hovered in the mid to high 90s is now sitting consistently in the high 80s to low 90s, which is a sign of arm problems. For Brandonwood’s sake, let’s hope the loss of velocity is just from a dead arm period and not from a dead arm.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I love Gangsta’s lineup. They can hit from top to bottom. He should have Tabata in there, but he tried today and Yahoo! wouldn’t let him. Offensively, Gansta gets the nod.

My Prediction: Gangsta.

Pos.

Lobster

Haveyouseenmyweiner

C

McCann

Montero

1b

Cabrera

LaRoche

2b

Uggla

Weeks

3b

A Rod

Headley

SS

Andrus

Desmond

OF

Ethier

Crawford

OF

Pagan

Bourn

OF

Magglio

Quentin

UTIL

C. Ruiz

Youkilis

UTIL

Infante

Rios

SP

Cain

Lee

SP

Bucholtz

Sabathia

SP

Beurhle

Wolf

RP

Soriano

Rivera

RP

Franklin

Venters

P

Garcia

Oswalt

P

Arroyo

Lyon

P

Nunez

Walter is short a pitcher again this week, thus giving Lobster a shot in all pitching categories. Walter starting Venters counteracts Lobster’s insistence on starting Rafael Soriano. I don’t link Brandon Lyon, but I don’t like Leo Nunez much either. From what they are starting, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Walter take the majority of the pitching categories from Lobster.

Walter has taken Juan Pierre out of his lineup, which makes winning SBs less of a lock, but with Bourn and Crawford in the same lineup, I don’t see anyone but him winning this category. I like Lobster’s infield better than Walter’s, but I like Walter’s outfield and UTIL players better than Lobster’s.

My Prediction: Haveyouseenmyweiner.

Pos.

Tacoby Bellsbury

Action Jacksons

C

Napoli

Martin

1b

Dunn

Votto

2b

Kinsler

Walker

3b

Inge

Beltre

SS

Castro

Bloomquist

OF

Ellsbury

Heyward

OF

Holliday

Stamton

OF

Francisco

Stubbs

UTIL

Ortiz

Roberts

UTIL

Victorino

Ibanez

SP

Weaver

Carpenter

SP

Hudson

Lewis

SP

Zimmerman

Bumgardner

RP

Bard

Soria

RP

Papelbon

Valverde

P

Danks

Kuroda

P

Masterson

Vasquez

P

Floyd

Jacob has left a pitcher’s spot empty again this week and he is starting a non-closer reliever. Though I’m not a big fan of Flynner’s rotation, I think he has the decided edge in all counting categories this week.

I guess Flynner is pissed at Joe Mauer. He has opted to start a non-drafted aging catcher who had one good week over the 23rd pick overall, two time batting champ and former AL MVP. That’s a reactionary head scratcher.

Injuries have taken their toll on both teams. Flynner’s starting SS is on the DL, so he is going with Willie Bloomquist at SS. This lifelong journeyman does have a 7 game hitting streak going and leads the majors with 6 SBs, though. Adam Dunn will miss a couple of games this week after his appendectomy, which is, apparently, a spreading epidemic in major league baseball these days, an epidemic on which Jacob has cornered the market. It seems to be the new oblique, an injury from which Jacob’s 3b, Evan Longoria, is suffering.

With all the injuries on his team, I can’t see Jacob making much noise this week.

My Prediction: Action Jacksons.

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