Don't Sleep on Memphis

I spent yesterday in my old hometown of Memphis, TN and saw something that was missing from my previous trips back to the The Bluff City:

Love for the Memphis Grizzlies.

I lived in Memphis for the heyday of the Grizzlies, though that isn't saying much. The Grizz featured Pau Gasol, James Posey, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Stromile Swift and Jason Williams, all led by legendary coach Hubie Brown and legendary GM Jerry West. The Pyramid was packed for the first playoff games in Memphis history against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Grizzlies were swept that series and have never won a playoff game. Not series - game. The Grizzles have been swept in all three of their playoff appearances.

That will change this year.

After several miserable seasons, trades (Pau Gasol?), draft picks (Hasheem Thabeet?) and signings (Allen Iverson?) that alienated a good city of basketball fans, the Grizzlies earned the #8 seed in the West this year and will face the Spurs again in the opening round. Memphis could have caught New Orleans to grab the #7 seed, but that would have meant facing the Lakers instead of the injury-riddled Spurs. San Antonio comes into the series with a banged-up Manu Ginobili (elbow), Tim Duncan (ankle) and Tony Parker (knee). Ginobili is the major concern for the Spurs; he looks to be out for Sunday's opener. At this point in his career, he is also the best player on the Spurs. Duncan is no longer the player who dominated the Grizzlies in 2004.

The Grizzlies are also without their best player - Rudy Gay. The difference between the teams, however, is the depth in Memphis and that the Grizzlies have been dealing with life without Gay for the final third of the season.

And life hasn't been that bad. O.J. Mayo emerged as a scoring threat in Gay's absence, basically taking Gay's place as the perimeter scorer. Mayo has largely been a disappointment in Memphis (including a drug-suspension as well as a fight with teammate Tony Allen after a poker game), but has shown consistent flashes in the latter of the season of what Memphis thought it was drafting.

Despite giving Pau Gasol away to Los Angeles two years ago, the Grizzlies have talent and depth in the post. Zach Randolph's reputation for a sulky, lazy player has not followed him to Memphis. He averaged 20 points and 12 rebounds this year. Marc Gasol, who came over to Memphis for his brother, adds 11.7 points and 7 rebounds/game. Add Darrell Arthur and Leon Powe and the Grizz match-up well with San Antonio.

The final piece to the Memphis playoff puzzle is its veteran leadership. Getting Shane Battier back from Houston to mentor guys like Gay and Mayo has been a boost in terms of their respective developments, but he is also a playoff veteran who makes Memphis a much better defensive team. The same goes for former Celtic Tony Allen. Allen has been instant energy and is one of the NBA's best and most annoying defenders.

The biggest question mark on the floor is at point guard. Mike Conley is improving, but remains the weakest member of the Memphis nucleus. And there is nobody behind him - over-the-hill Jason Williams and out-of-position-at-point-guard Greivis Vasquez come off the bench.

The biggest question mark off the floor is whether Lionel Hollins is ready for playoff basketball. Like the Grizzlies, he has never won a playoff game. His opposition, Gregg Popovich, has four NBA championships. Pop is one of, if not the, best coach in basketball right now. Hollins has a losing career-record. Will Hollins be able to get the Grizzlies home in the final minutes of a close playoff game? Will he be able to make the adjustments necessary in a 7-game series?

If Conley can hang with Tony Parker, or at least not get dominated by him, and Hollins can hang with Popovich, or at least not get dominated by him, the Grizzlies match up pretty well everywhere else on the floor:

PG Mike Conley vs. Tony Parker
SG Tony Allen/O.J. Mayo vs. Manu Ginobili
SF Sam Young/Shane Battier vs. Richard Jefferson
PF Zach Randolph vs. Tim Duncan
C Marc Gasol/Darrell Arthur vs. Antonio McDyess

I am not picking the Grizzlies to upset the Spurs. Experience matters in playoff basketball and the Spurs have championship experience. I am, however, picking the Grizzlies to make a series out of it. It wouldn't surprise me to see the series go seven games, especially if Ginobili is out.

Don't sleep on Memphis - they might just be a nightmare for the heavily-favored Spurs.