I spent a week previewing the 2011 Atlanta Braves last month and got about 24% of it correct. Spring Training in Orlando saw the emergence of an unknown outfielder, the rebirth of Nate McLouth (fingers crossed), and a surprise pick for the 5th starter. So let's re-preview the defending wildcard winners:
1) Roster - Matt Who?
The 25-man roster I expected was turned on its head this spring by a pair of disappointments and a pair of pleasant surprises. Joe Mather was signed from St. Louis to be an Omar Infante-type utility player, but he didn't hit a lick in the spring (.154 average and .192 slugging) and failed to make the roster (he cleared waivers and will start at Gwinnett). The other disappointment was Jordan Schafer who has never rebounded from the suspension a few years back and once again underperformed with the Braves (.167 average, .196 on-base...for a potential lead-off guy). Both guys are coming off injuries, but both were expected to make the squad and didn't.
The two surprises to make the team are Brandon Hicks and Matt Young. Hicks struck out a bunch in the spring, but slugged .450 to justify keeping his good glove around. The surprise of the spring, though, is Young. A minor league journeyman, he figured to lose out to Mather because a) that was the plan and b) Young is another left-handed bat off the bench, but Mather's struggles and .412 on-base got him on the Opening Day roster.
I thought Diory Hernandez would make the roster, but Fredi Gonzalez will keep Hicks and 12 pitchers instead.
2) Nate the Great?
Could Nate McLouth be back to the slugger Atlanta thought it was getting from Pittsburgh two years ago? The spring was certainly promising. McLouth's OBP was .400 and he only struck out 3 times in over 60 plate appearances. These are positive signs for a guy who looked lost at the plate last year. It looks like he will bat behind Prado in the 2-hole instead of Heyward (who was never a #2 hitter, but had to be last year).
If McLouth hits, this is a deep and tough line-up. Fingers crossed.
3) Beachy over Minor
Because why would the Braves need a lefty when competing against the Rollins-Utley-Howard Phillies? Gonzalez chose Brandon Beachy over Mike Minor, meaning the Braves will not have a left-handed starter in the rotation (unless Jurrjens goes on the DL, which looks more and more likely). I thought Minor would get the nod for sure, but Beachy pitched well (including today's exhibition against the Twins) and made the team.
The other minor surprise was Scott Proctor not making the bullpen. The pen looks solid if (and it's a dandy of an if) rookie Craig Kimbrel can replace Billy Wagner as close. Venters, Moylen, Linebrink, O'Flaherty - solid.
4) Larry Wayne Jones
All Chipper did this spring was slug .710 and hit 4 home runs in 62 plate appearances. The guy is ageless when he is healthy, but we all know that the chances of Chipper playing the entire year at full strength are about as good as Brian McCann swiping 20 bases (though McCann starts the year looking slimmer and stronger). If the Braves can get 130 games out of him and go into the post-season with him relatively healthy...
5) Then & Now
Then (2010) - Troy Glaus (needed to go), Derek Lee (eh), Matt Diaz (kind of sad, but okay), Omar Infante (hate losing him), Melky Cabrera (never could get excited about him), Billy Wagner (really hate losing him), Takashi Saito (eh), Kenshin Kawakami (good riddance), Jo-Jo Reyes (whatever).
Now (2011) - Dan Uggla (YES!), Freddie Freeman (high hopes), Brandon Hicks (?), Matt Young (???), Brandon Beachy (can't be worse than Kawakami, right?), Scott Linebrink (veteran relievers are good to have), George Sherill (get lefties out and we're good), Craig Kimbrel (big shoes to fill).
6) Questions
Can Martin Prado play left-field?
I expect an adventure for Prado for a while, but it seems like an easy enough transition from the middle infield to left. Chipper wasn't great out there, but he did alright and I figure Prado will have the same sort of learning curve.
Will the rotation hold up?
I'm not optimistic the Braves can keep Lowe, Hudson, and Jurrjens healthy all year, but Tommy Hanson had a great spring and I like our odds when it comes to so many important young arms. But really, who knows with pitching these days? Kris Medlen was young and is out. It seems impossible to predict.
Will Uggla be the offensive answer?
I'm excited about having a big right-handed bat in the line-up. Relying on Brian McCann to provide the bombs was never a winning formula for the offense. The guy can't play everyday and works harder defensively than anybody on the field. Uggla fixes that (on paper) and seems to be a great fit in the clubhouse. I think he will be the answer offensively.
Can Kimbrel close?
I don't think this is too big of a problem if it doesn't work. Jonny Venters is a fantastic alternative. And Peter Moylan strikes me as a passable regular season closer as well. Risking a SCSB jinx, I have no fears about the Braves bullpen going into the year.
Do I feel better about the Braves today than I did at the beginning of the spring?
Absolutely.
Chipper's bat + McLouth's return to form + Beachy's spring + Utley's injury = high hopes.
It starts tomorrow afternoon in D.C...
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