Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Closers...

Let me start off by saying that I hate Closers. I hate having to draft them. I hate having to rank them. I hate having to keep up with them throughout the year. They are an enigma. They always get hurt. They always get replaced. They are, for the most part, interchangeable. So, I hate them.

Except I love them, too. Having a couple of good, reliable closers is a huge fantasy asset. They can really help your team. But, like I said before, they always get replaced. For every Mariano Rivera, there are four Derreck Turnbow’s. For every Trevor Hoffman, there are twelve Eric Gagne’s (steroids anybody?).

So, for the most part, these rankings are an exercise in futility. I have David Aardsma ranked as if he is going to be Seattle’s closer this year, but you wanna know something about baseball? Hips are important. I’m sure you’re thinking, “Wow, Bill, thanks for the awesome insight. You really know your stuff. Also, the team that scores the most runs wins the game.” Well, the reason I say this is because Aardsma has a bad hip. He had surgery on his hip labrum this offseason and will likely not start the year as the M’s closer. It will likely be Brandon League. So, my rankings are already skewed. Dammit. Sorry.

Also, aside from Carlos Marmol, closers usually don’t rack enough strikeouts to really count on them in that category. But, every K counts and they need to be valued. So, I have tried. I have ranked each closer based on WHIP, ERA, Saves (obviously), and relief pitcher K’s (RPK). RPK’s is essentially just a ranking of the top 40 closers projected K total, because, yes, every K counts.

I have ranked the top 45 closers for purposes of your draft. But, like I’ve said, you’ll need to keep an eye on injuries and performance. Many teams change out closers as often as Charlie Sheen changes out “goddesses,” yet few are truly possessed with Tiger’s Blood, Adonis DNA or over a million followers on Twitter (in about 20 minutes).

Alas, here they are. Do with them what you will. Oh, and so you know, Andrew Bailey may or may not have torn up his elbow. He’s going to visit with Dr. James Andrews to see about it. If he’s out, draft Brian Fuentes instead. See what I’m saying about Closers?

Rank

Last Name

First Name

Team

W

K

ERA

WHIP

S

RPK

Total

1

Marmol

Carlos

CHI-N

0

0

5

5

6

7

23

2

Bell

Heath

SD

0

0

6

5

6

5

22

3

Feliz

Neftali

TEX

0

0

6

7

5

4

22

4

Soria

Joakim

KC

0

0

7

6

5

3

21

5

Hanrahan

Joel

PIT

0

0

5

5

3

6

19

6

Putz

J.J.

AZ

0

0

5

6

4

4

19

7

Street

Huston

COL

0

0

4

6

5

4

19

8

Wilson

Brian

SF

0

0

3

4

7

5

19

9

Axford

John

MIL

0

0

5

4

4

5

18

10

Broxton

Jonathan

LA

0

0

4

4

5

5

18

11

Lidge

Brad

PHI

0

0

5

6

5

2

18

12

Papelbon

Jonathan

BOS

0

0

4

5

5

4

18

13

Perez

Rafael

CLE

0

0

6

6

5

1

18

14

Rivera

Mariano

NY-A

0

0

6

6

5

1

18

15

Kimbrel

Craig

ATL

0

0

6

4

2

5

17

16

Nathan

Joe

MIN

0

0

5

6

4

2

17

17

Thornton

Matt

CHI-A

0

0

5

6

2

4

17

18

Venters

Jonny

ATL

0

0

6

4

2

5

17

19

Bailey

Andrew

OAK

0

0

6

6

3

1

16

20

Rodriguez

Francisco

NY-N

0

0

4

4

4

4

16

21

Sale

Chris

CHI-A

0

0

6

4

2

4

16

22

Bailey

Andrew

CIN

0

0

6

6

3

1

16

23

Benoit

Joaquin

DET

0

0

5

6

1

3

15

24

Clippard

Tyler

WAS

0

0

4

4

1

6

15

25

Franklin

Ryan

STL

0

0

5

5

4

1

15

26

Lyon

Brandon

HOU

0

0

5

4

4

2

15

27

McGee

Jacob

TB

0

0

5

5

2

3

15

28

Meek

Evan

PIT

0

0

6

5

1

3

15

29

Nunez

Leo

FLA

0

0

4

5

3

3

15

30

Storen

Drew

WAS

0

0

5

5

2

3

15

31

Valverde

Jose

DET

0

0

5

5

3

2

15

32

Balfour

Grant

OAK

0

0

5

5

1

3

14

33

Breslow

Craig

OAK

0

0

5

6

1

2

14

34

Francisco

Frank

TOR

0

0

4

5

3

2

14

35

Chapman

Aroldis

CIN

0

0

5

4

1

3

13

36

Hensley

Clay

FLA

0

0

4

4

1

4

13

37

League

Brandon

SEA

0

0

4

5

2

2

13

38

Capps

Matt

MIN

0

0

5

4

1

1

11

39

Gregg

Kevin

BAL

0

0

3

4

3

1

11

40

Fuentes

Brian

OAK

0

0

4

4

1

1

10

41

Aardsma

David

SEA

0

0

3

2

3

1

9

42

Cordero

Francisco

CIN

0

0

3

2

3

1

9

43

Jenks

Bobby

BOS

0

0

4

2

1

1

8

44

Rodney

Fernando

ANA

0

0

2

1

3

1

7

45

Dotel

Octavio

TOR

0

0

2

1

1

2

6

2 comments:

  1. Enjoyed reading about your closer hate. Maybe your rankings could be refined by adding a rating for "job security"? Hanrahan might be able strike out everybody in the world...but what happens if he blows 3 saves in a week? He's probably yanked, and loses his value. Brian Wilson, Riviera, Papelbon, those guys get a much more lengthy leash and I think there is significant value to knowing your guy is probably going to be going out in the 9th the whole year even if he hits a rough patch.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Josh,

    You raise a great point and I would welcome some suggestions on how to rate job security. Simply put, I don't know how to quantify job security. That's one reason why closers are so difficult to rank. That's another reason I called this an "exercise in futility." Like I said, for every Mariano Rivera, there are four Derrick Turnbows.

    Just think about the guys you've named up there. Rivera is 120 years old, though still seems just as good as ever, but do you take that into account or not? Brian Wilson has a balky back right now and a personality that lends itself toward blowing up (in a bad way). Do you take that into account? Papelbon's fastball isn't what used to be (dominant) and he relies more on his splitter, thus the decline in production. Bard is waiting in the wings and is probably the most effective closer the Sox have. How do you quantify that? Joel Hanrahan is unproven and is only ranked so highly on the closers board because he strikes a lot of people out, but how do you quantify the chance that he proves to be a hack and opens the door back up for Evan Meek?

    The only thing to do is keep your eye on the closer situations and do your best to keep a guy out there who can get you some saves. The best news is that there will be someone this year who is not on this list who will emerge as a quality closer and you'll be able to pick him up for cheap if you just pay attention.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete